Performance des institutions bancaires, structure des revenus et influence de l'économie et des marchés financiers

The post-crisis and regulatory changes face banks with a new framework, replacing financial performance at the heart of their model. With the exception of risks associated with proprietary financial transactions, effects of the structure of income on the profitability and the stability of results, however, are debated. This doctoral study proposes a further research on bank performance through the influence of economic and financial markets conditions. Such influence is little explored beyond credit risk and trading. Economic and financial markets conditions may explain significant variations for most components of earnings. Hence appraising possible earnings, and more broadly measuring uncertainties, require the consideration of the whole income structure as well as of volatilities and correlations of influencing variables.Further on a strategic level, the research then turns to the estimation of the performance, owing to the environment, of "traditional" banking services and of customers’ financial services. Finally, expectations of performance (profitability, volatility) as well as possible deviations are assessed throughout multiple scenarios. It appears that diversification into customers’ financial services, and prudent interest rate mismatch strategies, improve performance related to traditional banking services alone. Further, the overall uncertainty of performance associated with such a diversified bank seems to be contained when weighted by expected benefits. The influence of economic and financial conditions is exogenous; results however suggest that the choice of the business mix may provide with opportunities for risk mitigation and enhancement of risk-return.