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Le commerce intra-national et international des Etats Brésiliens : déterminants, structure et interdépendances

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  • Siroën, Jean-Marc

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Abstract

With the ambition of transposing trade analysis to an intra-national level, we work on the determinants and the structure of trade among Brazilian states, as well as their trade with international markets. In an introductory chapter, we present the stylized facts concerning the Brazilian trade while focusing mainly on the states’ characteristics. In chapter 1, we estimate the states’ domestic and foreign market export capacities by a gravity model of trade. Results show that the states with better foreign export capacities are not necessarily the same as those more oriented to the domestic market. Then in the second chapter, we use a gravity model to shed light on MERCOSUR’s creation and diversion effects as well as its “preference erosion” effect on trade among Brazilian states. We show that MERCOSUR increased Brazilian states’ trade with member countries, but had no significant effect on either interstate trade or Brazilian states’ trade with third countries. International organizations suggest the trade in value-added would be a “better” measure to understand the impact of trade on economy when import content in exports is important. Hence in a last chapter, we calculate the value-added exported by Brazilian states from an inter-state Input-Output table (2008) that we use to analyze and measure the vertical specialization between states. We also estimate a gravity model of trade in exported value-added that we extend to a trilateral frame: origin state, re-exporter state and importer country.

Suggested Citation

  • Yücer, Aycil, 2012. "Le commerce intra-national et international des Etats Brésiliens : déterminants, structure et interdépendances," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/11368 edited by Siroën, Jean-Marc.
  • Handle: RePEc:dau:thesis:123456789/11368 Note: dissertation
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Modèle de gravité; Commerce intra-national; Brésil; Tableaux Input-Output; Spécialisation verticale; Gravity model; Intra-national trade; Brazil; Input-Output tables; Vertical specialization;

    JEL classification:

    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models

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