Analyse von Einsparmöglichkeiten im Bundeshaushalt

Analysis of Potential Savings in the German Federal BudgetThis study analyses expenditure-side consolidation options in the German federal budget and their macroeconomic and fiscal effects up to 2030. In the baseline scenario without consolidation, expansionary fiscal policy, demographic change and rising interest costs push the general government deficit to EUR 311 billion (5.8% of GDP) and the debt ratio to 76.4%. Three consolidation scenarios are examined: indexing pensions to inflation instead of wages combined with a gradual halving of the so-called mothers' pension, a flat-rate cut in federal financial aid by 60% or 100%, and lowering the income threshold for parental allowance to EUR 50,000. Taken together, these measures relieve the federal budget by up to EUR 72 billion in 2030. Due to negative cyclical feedback effects on taxes and social contributions, however, the general government balance improves by only up to EUR 38 billion; the federal states, municipalities and social security funds face additional burdens of up to EUR 34 billion. In addition, a productivity scenario assumes that trend growth of total factor productivity increases by 0.1 percentage points each year from 2027 onwards. Real GDP in 2030 is then EUR 37.3 billion higher than in the baseline, the general government deficit falls by EUR 26 billion and the debt ratio by 1.7 percentage points. Combined with the consolidation measures, the federal budget improves by up to EUR 79 billion and the general government balance by up to EUR 64 billion. Fiscal consolidation should therefore be part of a comprehensive growth and reform strategy.