Reduktion von Armutsrisiko im integrierten Transfersystem: Simulationsanalyse einer existenzunterstützenden Leistung

Reducing the At-Risk-of-Poverty Rate in an Integrated Transfer System: A Microsimulation AnalysisThe German Commission on Welfare State Reform recommends merging basic income support (Bürgergeld), housing benefit (Wohngeld) and the child supplement (Kinderzuschlag) into a single integrated transfer, but leaves its design largely open. This report evaluates a reform proposal within a fully integrated system, targeted at households with children and low earned income above the subsistence level. Its core elements are an internal differentiation between a subsistence-securing and a subsistence-supporting benefit, with the transition point set at the mini-job threshold; an individual employment bonus (Erwerbsbooster) of EUR 100 per month; an earnings disregard for single parents; and transfer withdrawal rates differentiated by household type. The analysis uses the ifo microsimulation model based on the German Socio-Economic Panel, including labour supply and take-up responses.The reform raises average annual disposable household income by EUR 149, with considerably larger gains for single parents and families with several children; the lowest income deciles benefit most. The at-risk-of-poverty rate falls by 0.9 percentage points and the child poverty rate by 1.0 percentage points. Labour supply rises by 188 thousand full-time equivalents, and a further 322 thousand individuals move into employment. The additional fiscal cost amounts to EUR 5.4 billion per year; the number of households receiving transfers increases by 1.56 million, as the benefit extends further up the income distribution than the current system. Full integration therefore does not necessarily worsen outcomes at the bottom of the income distribution - what matters is the specific parametric design.