The oil market risk management: model and application

In the early 21st century, the global economy, following a phase of steady expansion, was hit by severe financial and economic crises and has yet to fully recover from the ensuing downturn. Against this macroeconomic backdrop, international oil prices have undergone drastic ups and downs driven by speculative capital, US dollar exchange rate fluctuations, geopolitical tensions and other contributing factors. Risks in petroleum markets have surged sharply, making research on oil price formation mechanisms a hot academic topic that draws widespread attention from scholars worldwide. Over the same period, China has maintained overall economic growth alongside continuous rises in domestic oil consumption and external oil import dependence. Mounting foreign-exchange expenditure on crude imports has brought prominent challenges regarding oil price volatility risks, petroleum supply security and broader economic security.In response to such circumstances, this monograph addresses several pivotal scientific issues concerning risk management within the intricate petroleum market system. It adopts interdisciplinary models and methodologies drawn from econometrics, energy economics and finance. From the dual perspectives of inherent risk traits within oil markets and exogenous risk drivers, the book delves into price volatility, spillover patterns, and how diverse risk determinants shape oil prices, thereby arriving at a set of essential research conclusions.This publication caters to professionals working in energy economics, macroeconomics, petroleum finance, risk management and investment. It also serves as a reliable reference for administrative leaders in economic governance authorities, executives of financial institutions, as well as senior and middle-tier corporate managers.