Forecasting Malaysian Onion Imports Using A Moving Average Model And Strategies To Overcome Reliance On A Fully Imported Supply

Since the 1990s, Malaysia has relied entirely on importing fresh onions—including large, small, and garlic varieties—to meet local demand, given the limited domestic production of green onions. A major supply disruption occurred in 2020 when Indian onion exports, crucial for Malaysia, were halted due to a severe flood in India. This study aims to forecast the impact of lifting the export bans from India in May 2024 on Malaysian onion imports over the subsequent four months. Using the moving average method for analysis, results indicated a 12.9% decrease in imports, from 47,000 Mt to 42,000 Mt. This decline mirrors trends observed over the past three years, with lower imports typically during year end. The forecasting model demonstrated strong performance, with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 9.7% and a Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 29,079,653; both suggesting accurate predictions. In response to these disruptions, the Malaysian Agricultural Research and Development Institute (MARDI) has initiated local cultivation efforts to reduce import dependency. These measures aim to enhance domestic production and mitigate risks associated with global supply chain vulnerabilities.