The Economic Importance Of Wheat Cultivation To Increase Agricultural Production In Iraq

This study aims to develop the agricultural reality of wheat production in the region and establish a baseline from which to assess the impact of the national wheat cultivation development project in subsequent years. The study was conducted in the lands of the Al-Numaniyah region, which were planted with wheat for seven previous agricultural seasons, starting from 2015-2016. Based on this, wheat cultivation in previous years yielded acceptable positive results from an economic perspective, as measured by statistical analysis. The net present value was 12.757 at a discount factor of 8%, and the benefit-to-cost ratio was 1.145 at a discount factor of 8%. The internal rate of return was 29.392%. To predict the current state of wheat cultivation in the region for subsequent seasons, starting from 2022-2023, time series were used, relying on the statistical linear regression equation Y = a + bx. According to this, wheat production forecasts were 43,736, 47,999, 52,262, and 56,525 tons for the subsequent years, from 2026 – 2029. Respectively, these results can be considered a source for future comparison with the production achieved after the implementation of the National Program for the Development of Wheat Cultivation. Finally, since the values of the economic evaluation criteria results are relatively high, we believe there is no need to conduct a sensitivity analysis of the project by holding returns constant and increasing costs by 10%, or by holding costs constant and decreasing returns by 10%, and then re-analyzing