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Konjunkturprognosen: Falsche Erwartungen an Treffgenauigkeit


  • Hinze, Jörg


Konjunkturprognosen treffen selten exakt mit der tatsächlichen Entwicklung zusammen. Bei Abweichungen zwischen Prognosen und Realität ist schnell von Fehlprognosen die Rede. Für 2004 waren die Prognosen dem Anschein nach wieder deutlich besser als für die Jahre zuvor. Doch trifft dies tatsächlich zu oder waren nur die Prognosebedingungen günstiger? Inwieweit sind quantitativ exakte Konjunkturprognosen überhaupt möglich?

Suggested Citation

  • Hinze, Jörg, 2005. "Konjunkturprognosen: Falsche Erwartungen an Treffgenauigkeit," Wirtschaftsdienst – Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik (1949 - 2007), ZBW – German National Library of Economics / Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 85(2), pages 117-123.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:wirtdi:42481

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