IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/zbw/jumsac/326972.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling the impact of emission credit systems on automotive product portfolios: A mathematical analysis of policy effects in Europe, China, and the U.S. under different demand scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Shi, Zewei

Abstract

In the midst of the global climate crisis, governments worldwide have implemented a range of emission policies aimed at en-couraging more production of the environmentally friendly vehicle. However, the exact impact of these policies on automakers'production portfolios and profitability remains uncertain and challenging to anticipate. This paper presents a comprehensiveanalysis of three major emission regulation policies enacted by the European Union (EU), China, and the United States (U.S.),evaluating their influence on car manufacturers. Leveraging a mathematical model, this paper adopt the perspective of in-dividual manufacturers seeking to maximize revenue, delving into the intricacies of these policies. Furthermore, this articleconduct sensitivity and factorial analyses to assess the impact of policy parameters. The findings reveal that all three majoremission policies contribute to an increase in the production of low-emission vehicles. However, China's policy has the leastimpact on manufacturers' profits and relies more on market demand to reduce the average carbon fleet emissions comparedto the policies in the EU and the U.S. In conclusion, this paper underscores that different policy systems yield varying profitoutcomes for manufacturers, necessitating adjustments to production portfolios for sustained profitability and the significanceof mathematical models in aiding manufacturers' understanding of evolving policies and making informed predictions in adynamic regulatory landscape.

Suggested Citation

  • Shi, Zewei, 2025. "Modeling the impact of emission credit systems on automotive product portfolios: A mathematical analysis of policy effects in Europe, China, and the U.S. under different demand scenarios," Junior Management Science (JUMS), Junior Management Science e. V., vol. 10(3), pages 748-780.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:jumsac:326972
    DOI: 10.5282/jums/v10i3pp748-780
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/326972/1/1935999362.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5282/jums/v10i3pp748-780?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thiel, Christian & Nijs, Wouter & Simoes, Sofia & Schmidt, Johannes & van Zyl, Arnold & Schmid, Erwin, 2016. "The impact of the EU car CO2 regulation on the energy system and the role of electro-mobility to achieve transport decarbonisation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 153-166.
    2. Ajanovic, Amela & Haas, Reinhard, 2017. "The impact of energy policies in scenarios on GHG emission reduction in passenger car mobility in the EU-15," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P2), pages 1088-1096.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ettore Bompard & Daniele Grosso & Tao Huang & Francesco Profumo & Xianzhang Lei & Duo Li, 2018. "World Decarbonization through Global Electricity Interconnections," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-29, July.
    2. Konstantinos Koasidis & Anastasios Karamaneas & Alexandros Nikas & Hera Neofytou & Erlend A. T. Hermansen & Kathleen Vaillancourt & Haris Doukas, 2020. "Many Miles to Paris: A Sectoral Innovation System Analysis of the Transport Sector in Norway and Canada in Light of the Paris Agreement," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-37, July.
    3. Lee, Shin, 2018. "Transport policies, induced traffic and their influence on vehicle emissions in developed and developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 264-274.
    4. Cheng, Zhen & Ding, Chante Jian & Zhao, Kunqian, 2025. "Energy use rights trading and carbon emissions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 315(C).
    5. Vincenzo Bianco & Annalisa Marchitto & Federico Scarpa & Luca A. Tagliafico, 2020. "Forecasting Energy Consumption in the EU Residential Sector," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-15, March.
    6. Gan, Yu & Wang, Michael & Lu, Zifeng & Kelly, Jarod, 2021. "Taking into account greenhouse gas emissions of electric vehicles for transportation de-carbonization," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    7. Delfina Rogowska & Artur Wyrwa, 2021. "Analysis of the Potential for Reducing Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Motor Fuels," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-19, June.
    8. Bertoldi, Paolo & Mosconi, Rocco, 2020. "Do energy efficiency policies save energy? A new approach based on energy policy indicators (in the EU Member States)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    9. Maciej Ciołek & Izabela Emerling & Katarzyna Olejko & Beata Sadowska & Magdalena Wójcik-Jurkiewicz, 2022. "Assumptions of the Energy Policy of the Country versus Investment Outlays Related to the Purchase of Alternative Fuels: Poland as a Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-18, March.
    10. Lizhi Cui & Yining Ding & Xiangqian Li, 2022. "Environmental Regulation Competition and Carbon Emissions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-28, December.
    11. Xuanwei Zhao & Jinsong Han, 2025. "How Is Transportation Sector Low-Carbon (TSLC) Research Developing After the Paris Agreement (PA)? A Decade Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-28, March.
    12. Jäger-Waldau, Arnulf & Kougias, Ioannis & Taylor, Nigel & Thiel, Christian, 2020. "How photovoltaics can contribute to GHG emission reductions of 55% in the EU by 2030," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    13. Espinosa Valderrama, Mónica & Cadena Monroy, Ángela Inés & Behrentz Valencia, Eduardo, 2019. "Challenges in greenhouse gas mitigation in developing countries: A case study of the Colombian transport sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 111-122.
    14. Jacek Oskarbski & Krystian Birr & Karol Żarski, 2021. "Bicycle Traffic Model for Sustainable Urban Mobility Planning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-36, September.
    15. Li, Chao & Yi, Yongxi & Zhang, Aoxiang & Chen, Biao, 2023. "Fuel consumption-reduction investment decisions and coordination contracts in fuel vehicle supply chains: A dynamic analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    16. Patricia Renou-Maissant & Rafik Abdessalam & Jean Bonnet, 2018. "Trajectories for energy transition in the countries of the European Union over the period 2000-2015: a multidimensional approach," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes & University of Caen) 2018-14, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes, University of Caen and CNRS.
    17. Balali, Yasaman & Stegen, Sascha, 2021. "Review of energy storage systems for vehicles based on technology, environmental impacts, and costs," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    18. Anastasios Tsakalidis & Andreea Julea & Christian Thiel, 2019. "The Role of Infrastructure for Electric Passenger Car Uptake in Europe," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-18, November.
    19. Stergios Statharas & Yannis Moysoglou & Pelopidas Siskos & Georgios Zazias & Pantelis Capros, 2019. "Factors Influencing Electric Vehicle Penetration in the EU by 2030: A Model-Based Policy Assessment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-25, July.
    20. Sajid, M. Jawad & Cao, Qingren & Kang, Wei, 2019. "Transport sector carbon linkages of EU's top seven emitters," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 24-38.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:jumsac:326972. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://jums.academy/en/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.