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Modeling the impact of emission credit systems on automotive product portfolios: A mathematical analysis of policy effects in Europe, China, and the U.S. under different demand scenarios

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  • Shi, Zewei

Abstract

In the midst of the global climate crisis, governments worldwide have implemented a range of emission policies aimed at en-couraging more production of the environmentally friendly vehicle. However, the exact impact of these policies on automakers'production portfolios and profitability remains uncertain and challenging to anticipate. This paper presents a comprehensiveanalysis of three major emission regulation policies enacted by the European Union (EU), China, and the United States (U.S.),evaluating their influence on car manufacturers. Leveraging a mathematical model, this paper adopt the perspective of in-dividual manufacturers seeking to maximize revenue, delving into the intricacies of these policies. Furthermore, this articleconduct sensitivity and factorial analyses to assess the impact of policy parameters. The findings reveal that all three majoremission policies contribute to an increase in the production of low-emission vehicles. However, China's policy has the leastimpact on manufacturers' profits and relies more on market demand to reduce the average carbon fleet emissions comparedto the policies in the EU and the U.S. In conclusion, this paper underscores that different policy systems yield varying profitoutcomes for manufacturers, necessitating adjustments to production portfolios for sustained profitability and the significanceof mathematical models in aiding manufacturers' understanding of evolving policies and making informed predictions in adynamic regulatory landscape.

Suggested Citation

  • Shi, Zewei, 2025. "Modeling the impact of emission credit systems on automotive product portfolios: A mathematical analysis of policy effects in Europe, China, and the U.S. under different demand scenarios," Junior Management Science (JUMS), Junior Management Science e. V., vol. 10(3), pages 748-780.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:jumsac:326972
    DOI: 10.5282/jums/v10i3pp748-780
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thiel, Christian & Nijs, Wouter & Simoes, Sofia & Schmidt, Johannes & van Zyl, Arnold & Schmid, Erwin, 2016. "The impact of the EU car CO2 regulation on the energy system and the role of electro-mobility to achieve transport decarbonisation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 153-166.
    2. Ajanovic, Amela & Haas, Reinhard, 2017. "The impact of energy policies in scenarios on GHG emission reduction in passenger car mobility in the EU-15," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P2), pages 1088-1096.
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