Data-driven monitoring framework for rural digital infrastructure: Evidence from internet speed trends and forecast-based quality control in the Samarkand region

Digital infrastructure is a crucial factor for inclusive growth, and rural digital service quality, especially in developing economies, is still behind that of cities. Therefore, continuous monitoring and short-term forecasting of service quality is important for effective management of digital infrastructure. This study presents a data-based approach for monitoring rural internet service quality in Uzbekistan, with average speed measured in Mbps being considered a fundamental service quality parameter. The study focuses on rural areas in the Samarkand region, with internet speeds measured monthly over a sample period from March 2022 to December 2025, totalling 46 observations. The objectives of this study include: (i) establishing the existence of a significant trend in rural internet speeds, (ii) establishing whether there is an annual seasonal effect, and (iii) establishing whether short-run forecasts are suitable for operations. The study employed a deterministic linear trend equation, a unit root test with seasonal differencing, and a SARIMA model, with Stata being employed for estimation purposes. The results indicate that there is a strong, significant trend in rural internet speeds, with an average increase of about 0.48 Mbps per month, with β = 0.484, p