Anticipatory Environmental Governance and Pro-Environmental Behaviour in Emerging Markets

This study advances anticipatory environmental governance (AEG) theory by uncovering the institutional-behavioural pathways influencing environmental outcomes in emerging markets. By integrating anticipatory governance with institutional theories, we develop and validate the Dual-Mediation Framework explaining how institutional mechanisms drive behavioural change in transitional economies. Analysing data from 1,350 Vietnamese stakeholders, our findings reveal attitudinal (β = 0.28) and commitment-based (β = 0.49) pathways, with the latter exerting more substantial influence in collectivist contexts. Additionally, we identify optimal implementation thresholds (3.6–4.2 on the governance scale) that maximize behavioural impact while conserving resources. Our contributions include theoretical integration through a novel epistemic architecture, methodological advancement via a validated AEG scale, and practical policy guidelines for sustainability transitions in emerging economies. The framework accounts for 58% of variance in environmental behaviour, providing robust guidance for environmental assessment policy and management.