IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wsi/ijmpcx/v28y2017i11ns0129183117501327.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A multiplicative process for generating a beta-like survival function with application to the UK 2016 EU referendum results

Author

Listed:
  • Trevor Fenner

    (Department of Computer Science and Information Systems Birkbeck, University of London, London, UK)

  • Eric Kaufmann

    (Department of Politics Birkbeck, University of London, London, UK)

  • Mark Levene

    (Department of Computer Science and Information Systems Birkbeck, University of London, London, UK)

  • George Loizou

    (Department of Computer Science and Information Systems Birkbeck, University of London, London, UK)

Abstract

Human dynamics and sociophysics suggest statistical models that may explain and provide us with better insight into social phenomena. Contextual and selection effects tend to produce extreme values in the tails of rank-ordered distributions of both census data and district-level election outcomes. Models that account for this nonlinearity generally outperform linear models. Fitting nonlinear functions based on rank-ordering census and election data therefore improves the fit of aggregate voting models. This may help improve ecological inference, as well as election forecasting in majoritarian systems. We propose a generative multiplicative decrease model that gives rise to a rank-order distribution and facilitates the analysis of the recent UK EU referendum results. We supply empirical evidence that the beta-like survival function, which can be generated directly from our model, is a close fit to the referendum results, and also may have predictive value when covariate data are available.

Suggested Citation

  • Trevor Fenner & Eric Kaufmann & Mark Levene & George Loizou, 2017. "A multiplicative process for generating a beta-like survival function with application to the UK 2016 EU referendum results," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 28(11), pages 1-14, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijmpcx:v:28:y:2017:i:11:n:s0129183117501327
    DOI: 10.1142/S0129183117501327
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0129183117501327
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1142/S0129183117501327?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Damián H. Zanette, 2008. "Multiplicative Processes and City Sizes," Springer Books, in: Sergio Albeverio & Denise Andrey & Paolo Giordano & Alberto Vancheri (ed.), The Dynamics of Complex Urban Systems, pages 457-472, Springer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rytis Kazakeviv{c}ius & Aleksejus Kononovicius, 2023. "Anomalous diffusion and long-range memory in the scaled voter model," Papers 2301.08088, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2023.
    2. Rytis Kazakevicius & Aleksejus Kononovicius & Bronislovas Kaulakys & Vygintas Gontis, 2021. "Understanding the nature of the long-range memory phenomenon in socioeconomic systems," Papers 2108.02506, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Trevor Fenner & Mark Levene & George Loizou, 2018. "A multiplicative process for generating the rank-order distribution of UK election results," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 1069-1079, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:ijmpcx:v:28:y:2017:i:11:n:s0129183117501327. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tai Tone Lim (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.worldscinet.com/ijmpc/ijmpc.shtml .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.