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Analysis of the effect of older drivers’ driving behaviors on traffic flow based on a modified CA model

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  • Mei-Ying Jian

    (Institute of Transportation Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, P. R. China2School of Transportation, Inner Mongolia University, No. 24 Zhaojun Rd., Hohhot 010021, P. R. China)

  • Jing Shi

    (Institute of Transportation Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, P. R. China)

  • Yang Liu

    (Institute of Transportation Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, P. R. China)

Abstract

As the global population ages, there are more and more older drivers on the road. The decline in driving performance of older drivers may influence the properties of traffic flow and safety. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of older drivers’ driving behaviors on traffic flow. A modified cellular automaton (CA) model which takes driving behaviors of older drivers into account is proposed. The simulation results indicate that older drivers’ driving behaviors induce a reduction in traffic flow especially when the density is higher than 15 vehicles per km per lane and an increase in Lane-changing frequency. The analysis of stability shows that a number of disturbances could frequently emerge, be propagated and eventually dissipate in this modified model. The results also reflect that with the increase of older drivers on the road, the probability of the occurrence of rear-end collisions increases greatly and obviously. Furthermore, the value of acceleration influences the traffic flow and safety significantly. These results provide the theoretical basis and reference for the traffic management departments to develop traffic management measure in the aging society.

Suggested Citation

  • Mei-Ying Jian & Jing Shi & Yang Liu, 2016. "Analysis of the effect of older drivers’ driving behaviors on traffic flow based on a modified CA model," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 27(03), pages 1-17, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijmpcx:v:27:y:2016:i:03:n:s0129183116500315
    DOI: 10.1142/S0129183116500315
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