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Simulation Of Mad Cow Disease Propagation

Author

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  • M. S. MAGDOŃ-MAKSYMOWICZ

    (Department of Mathematical Statistics, Agricultural University, Al. Mickiewicza 21, 31-120 Kraków, Poland)

  • A. Z. MAKSYMOWICZ

    (Department of Applied Computer Science, Faculty of Physics and Applied Computer Science, AGH-University of Science and Technology, Al. Mickiewicza 30, 30-059 Kraków, Poland)

  • J. GOŁDASZ

    (Delphi Technical Center Kraków, ul. Podgórki Tynieckie 2, 30-399 Kraków, Poland)

Abstract

Computer simulation of dynamic of BSE disease is presented. Both vertical (to baby) and horizontal (to neighbor) mechanisms of the disease spread are considered. The game takes place on a two-dimensional square latticeNx×Ny= 1000×1000with initial population randomly distributed on the net. The disease may be introduced either with the initial population or by a spontaneous development of BSE in an item, at a small frequency. Main results show a critical probability of the BSE transmission above which the disease is present in the population. This value is vulnerable to possible spatial clustering of the population and it also depends on the mechanism responsible for the disease onset, evolution and propagation. A threshold birth rate below which the population is extinct is seen. Above this threshold the population is disease free at equilibrium until another birth rate value is reached when the disease is present in population. For typical model parameters used for the simulation, which may correspond to the mad cow disease, we are close to the BSE-free case.

Suggested Citation

  • M. S. Magdoń-Maksymowicz & A. Z. Maksymowicz & J. Gołdasz, 2006. "Simulation Of Mad Cow Disease Propagation," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(02), pages 213-222.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijmpcx:v:17:y:2006:i:02:n:s0129183106008935
    DOI: 10.1142/S0129183106008935
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