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THE SPEECHES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK’s PRESIDENTS: AN NLP STUDY

Author

Listed:
  • THIERRY WARIN

    (HEC Montreal, Department of International Business, 3000, Chemin de la Côte-Sainte-Catherine, Montréal (Québec) H3T 2A7, Canada‡CIRANO, 1130 Sherbrooke Ouest #1400, Montréal, QC H3A 2M8, Canada)

  • WILLIAM SANGER

    (#x2020;Department of Mathematics and Industrial Engineering, Polytechnique Montréal 2900 Boulevard, Edouard-Montpetit, Montréal, QC H3T 1J4, Canada‡CIRANO, 1130 Sherbrooke Ouest #1400, Montréal, QC H3A 2M8, Canada)

Abstract

This paper introduces natural language processing into the study of central banking. It studies the evolution of the ECB’s communication through time, considering its three subsequent presidents (W. Duisenberg, J. C. Trichet and M. Draghi) and the pre- and post-2008 financial crisis era. It helps understand the history of the ECB since its inception. From a methodological standpoint, we study the evolution of the ECB’s speeches. The speech analysis is based on text classification and sentiment/polarity analyses. For that purpose, we have built a unique dataset of the ECB’s speeches. We have coded algorithms to run the text analysis through time. They help us capture the evolution in the ECB’s understanding of the actual economic situation and also measure — for instance — the stress level at the ECB through a polarity analysis through time.

Suggested Citation

  • Thierry Warin & William Sanger, 2020. "THE SPEECHES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK’s PRESIDENTS: AN NLP STUDY," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(02), pages 1-31, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:gejxxx:v:20:y:2020:i:02:n:s2194565920500098
    DOI: 10.1142/S2194565920500098
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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Victor Maia, 2023. "The reaction of disagreements in inflation expectations to fiscal sentiment obtained from information in official communiqués," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(4), pages 828-859, October.

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