Low-Carbon Development Pathways in Developing Asia: Evidence from Modeling Scenarios

Asia’s development trajectory has important implications for achieving the globally agreed climate goal of limiting global warming to well below 2∘C. The Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change incorporated an ambitious effort to compile and compare thousands of model–scenario combinations from integrated assessment models. This paper explores the evidence within that database to consider low-carbon development pathways for developing economies in Asia and the Pacific. Overall, a comparison of the major models shows that strong consistency in the transformation of the energy sector is required to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. This includes a rapid decline in the share of coal—a mainstay of the power sector in developing Asia—and a substantial rise in renewable energy. The cost of the transition can be relatively low if mitigation policies are efficient, as assumed in the models.