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Impact of Population Aging on Asia’s Future Economic Growth, 2021–2050

Author

Listed:
  • DONGHYUN PARK

    (Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department, Asian Development Bank, Philippines)

  • KWANHO SHIN

    (Department of Economics, Korea University, Republic of Korea)

Abstract

Developing Asia has grown faster than other parts of the world for decades. However, population aging is expected to pose significant headwinds to the region’s future economic growth. We update and enhance the analysis of Park and Shin (2012) to project the impact of population aging on developing Asia’s growth between 2021 and 2050. Our projections indicate that a demographic transition will have a substantial negative effect on the region’s future growth, but the effect varies across economies. Older economies will suffer a demographic tax, whereas younger economies will continue to enjoy a positive but declining demographic dividend.

Suggested Citation

  • Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2023. "Impact of Population Aging on Asia’s Future Economic Growth, 2021–2050," Asian Development Review (ADR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 40(01), pages 49-78, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:adrxxx:v:40:y:2023:i:01:n:s0116110523500014
    DOI: 10.1142/S0116110523500014
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    aging; Asia; growth; investment; labor force; saving; total factor productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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