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A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in the People’s Republic of China

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  • Fan Zhai
  • Tun Lin
  • Enerelt Byambadorj

Abstract

This paper examines the potential long-term impacts of global climate change on agricultural production and trade in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Using an economy-wide, global computable general equilibrium model, this paper simulates the scenarios of global agricultural productivity change induced by climate change up to 2080. The results suggest that with the anticipated decline in agriculture share of gross domestic product, the impact of climate change on the PRC’s macro economy will be moderate. The food processing subsectors are predicted to bear the brunt of losses from the agricultural productivity changes caused by climate change. Production of some crop sectors (such as wheat), in contrast, is likely to expand due to increased demand from other regions of the world.

Suggested Citation

  • Fan Zhai & Tun Lin & Enerelt Byambadorj, 2009. "A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in the People’s Republic of China," Asian Development Review (ADR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 26(01), pages 206-225, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:adrxxx:v:26:y:2009:i:01:n:s0116110509500073
    DOI: 10.1142/S0116110509500073
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    Cited by:

    1. Santos, Cárliton Vieira dos & Oliveira, Aryeverton Fortes de & Filho, Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira, 2022. "Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and the economy in different regions of Brazil," Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural (RESR), Sociedade Brasileira de Economia e Sociologia Rural, vol. 60(1), January.
    2. Asmamaw Mulusew & Mingyong Hong, 2024. "A dynamic linkage between greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and agricultural productivity: evidence from Ethiopia," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-17, December.

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