A Systems Design Exploration Approach that Illuminates Tradespaces Using Statistical Experimental Designs

This paper describes an approach that leverages computer simulation models and statistical experimental designs for exploration studies during the early conceptual design of a system. We apply the approach to a naval ship design problem and demonstrate how we can illuminate trade decisions among multiple design decisions and evaluation measures using a dynamic dashboard. After performing experimental designs on a collection of simulation models, we can fit statistical models that act as surrogates to these simulations. These surrogate models allow us to explore a wider variety of system alternatives rather than fixating on a narrow set of alternatives. The purpose of the approach is to simultaneously explore the operational and physical domains using statistical surrogate models in order to illuminate trade decisions between the system's operational effectiveness and physical design considerations.