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Inexpensive, Clean, Reliable Energy Will Require Engineered Systems

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  • Alex Pavlak

Abstract

Although small emission reductions are easy, large reductions will demand engineered systems. Classical system engineering (SE) development begins with ultimate goals such as big (>90%) reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. The first SE phase, concept development, consists of system tradeoffs to clarify feasible concepts and focus development efforts. These system studies begin with simple concept models and then build complexity in stages to elucidate principles, interfaces, and requirements. The concept definition phase is classically concluded with a critical review followed by a management decision, a value choice. Overall, classical SE starts with the ultimate goals, then works backward to allocate requirements and figure out how to get there from here. Contrast this with today's forward migration approach. Migrating forward without a clear path to an ultimate goal runs the risk of dead end development, stuck with concepts that cannot reach the ultimate goal. This paper illustrates concept development needs for both wind systems and for civilian nuclear power.

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  • Alex Pavlak, 2015. "Inexpensive, Clean, Reliable Energy Will Require Engineered Systems," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(3), pages 241-252, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:syseng:v:18:y:2015:i:3:p:241-252
    DOI: 10.1002/sys.21296
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