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The Relationship of Technology and Design Maturity to DoD Weapon System Cost Change and Schedule Change During Engineering and Manufacturing Development

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  • Daniel R. Katz
  • Shahram Sarkani
  • Thomas Mazzuchi
  • Edmund H. Conrow

Abstract

Every year, the Department of Defense (DoD) invests billions of dollars on the development of major defense acquisition programs. In return, many of these weapon systems have been plagued with cost overruns and schedule delays during the Engineering and Manufacturing Development (EMD) phase. Under conflicting guidance, DoD and the Government Accountability Office (GAO) suggest that weapon systems should contain subsystems with relatively mature technologies (based on the Technology Readiness Level of critical technologies) and design mature (based on the percentage of releasable design drawings) during system development. However, there has been no published research to date on the relationship between technology and design maturity guidance and the resulting cost change and schedule change of DoD weapon systems. The research presented in this paper confirms that the GAO guidance for design maturity can lead to a reduction of cost growth and schedule slippage of DoD weapon systems. In contrast, the research indicates that technology maturity guidance only impacts the schedule change of weapon systems, and not the potential cost change. With the quantitative results from the research, DoD and GAO officials can provide additional guidance to the planning and execution of the EMD phase, such as allocation of research and development funds to maturity achievement efforts.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel R. Katz & Shahram Sarkani & Thomas Mazzuchi & Edmund H. Conrow, 2015. "The Relationship of Technology and Design Maturity to DoD Weapon System Cost Change and Schedule Change During Engineering and Manufacturing Development," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(1), pages 1-15, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:syseng:v:18:y:2015:i:1:p:1-15
    DOI: 10.1111/sys.21281
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eileen McConkie & Thomas A. Mazzuchi & Shahram Sarkani & D. Marchette, 2013. "Mathematical properties of System Readiness Levels," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(4), pages 391-400, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Morgan Dwyer & Bruce Cameron & Zoe Szajnfarber, 2015. "A Framework for Studying Cost Growth on Complex Acquisition Programs," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(6), pages 568-583, November.
    2. Wanda Peters & Steven Doskey & James Moreland, 2017. "Technology Maturity Assessments and Confidence Intervals," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 20(2), pages 188-204, March.
    3. Edwin C. Y. Koh, 2017. "A study on the Requirements to Support the Accurate Prediction of Engineering Change Propagation," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 20(2), pages 147-157, March.

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    2. Michael J. Pennock, 2015. "Defense Acquisition: A Tragedy of the Commons," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(4), pages 349-364, July.

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