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Macroeconomic, Digital, and Environmental Determinants of International Tourism Arrivals: Evidence From the U.S., China, and Germany

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  • Xulong Dai
  • Farzana Abid

Abstract

This study investigates the macroeconomic, digital, and environmental determinants of international tourism arrivals in the United States, China, and Germany using annual data from 2000 to 2020. A comprehensive econometric framework—comprising descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, panel unit root tests, Engle–Granger cointegration, Granger causality, and a panel ARDL (PMG) estimator—is employed to capture both short‐run dynamics and long‐run equilibrium relationships. The analysis incorporates key variables such as nominal GDP, trade openness, air transport connectivity, internet penetration, CO2 emissions per capita, and the real effective exchange rate. The results show that international tourism is positively influenced by economic growth, digitalization, and transport infrastructure, while environmental pressures and exchange rate fluctuations constrain expansion. Long‐run cointegration is confirmed for the United States and Germany, whereas China's tourism patterns remain more short‐run in nature, reflecting structural transition. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of integrating digital infrastructure, environmental sustainability, and macroeconomic stability to promote inclusive and resilient tourism growth in alignment with the Sustainable Development Goals.

Suggested Citation

  • Xulong Dai & Farzana Abid, 2026. "Macroeconomic, Digital, and Environmental Determinants of International Tourism Arrivals: Evidence From the U.S., China, and Germany," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(S2), pages 828-842, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:sustdv:v:34:y:2026:i:s2:p:828-842
    DOI: 10.1002/sd.70367
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