Beyond Green Promises: Renewable Energy, Complexity, and Geopolitics in Achieving the SDGs of G8 Nations

This study investigates the determinants of the ecological footprint (EF) in G8 nations from 2000 to 2022, with a focus on renewable energy consumption (REC), economic complexity (EC), geopolitical risk (GPR), and their interaction (REC × EC). Advanced panel econometric techniques—including the CIPS unit root test, Westerlund cointegration, and Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR)—are employed to account for cross‐sectional dependence, slope heterogeneity, and distributional asymmetries. Feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) estimation and FE with the Driscoll–Kraay method provide robustness validation. The results reveal that EC generally reduces EF, particularly in low‐ and mid‐EF contexts, but its mitigating effect weakens and becomes insignificant in high‐EF settings. Importantly, the interaction term (REC × EC) significantly offsets the ecological costs of renewable energy, showing that economic sophistication enhances the capacity of renewables to deliver genuine environmental benefits through improved integration, efficiency, and technological upgrading. By contrast, REC on its own exhibits a positive association with EF across most quantiles, especially in high‐stress contexts, reflecting transitional ecological costs, parallel fossil energy systems, and inefficiencies in renewable deployment. GPR consistently increases EF, with stronger effects at higher ecological stress levels, underscoring the destabilizing influence of geopolitical tensions on sustainable energy transitions. Control variables—trade openness (TO), internet penetration rate (IPR), and R&D spending (RD)—exhibit heterogeneous impacts depending on model specification and distributional position. This study contributes to the literature by explicitly incorporating the moderating role of EC in the REC–EF nexus, applying a quantile‐based approach for nuanced heterogeneity analysis, and providing robust, endogeneity‐corrected evidence to guide SDG‐aligned policy strategies in advanced economies.