Turbulent Currents or Steady Streams? Geopolitical Risk, Governance, and Sustainable Pathways in the E7

This study explores how geopolitical risk, governance quality, and education interact to shape green growth in E7 economies over 2000–2023. Using the Cross‐Sectionally Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS‐ARDL) and robustness estimators (CCEMG and MG), the analysis distinguishes both short‐run adjustment and long‐run equilibrium dynamics while accounting for cross‐sectional dependence and heterogeneity. The results reveal that geopolitical risk (GPR) exerts a destabilizing effect on green growth, yet its negative influence is significantly moderated by education (EDC) indicating that stronger human‐capital capacity enhances resilience and policy adaptability under uncertainty. Natural resource rents (NRS) remain a structural constraint in the short run but show weakly positive long‐run potential when effectively governed. Renewable energy (RNE) supports long‐term sustainability despite short‐term transition costs, while institutional quality (ISQ) consistently drives stable, governance‐led improvements in green performance. These findings demonstrate that human capital and governance strength jointly outweigh resource dependence and geopolitical volatility as determinants of sustainable growth. Policy implications highlight three strategic priorities for E7 countries: (i) invest in education and technical training to buffer geopolitical shocks and foster green innovation; (ii) strengthen governance systems to ensure transparent and accountable green‐investment management; and (iii) channel a share of resource revenues toward renewable‐energy infrastructure and research. By reinforcing the synergy between education, governance, and clean energy, E7 economies can transform geopolitical turbulence into a pathway for resilient and inclusive sustainability aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals.