Opening the Black Box of Digital Development and Growth Asymmetries: The Roles of Human Capital and Supply Chain Logistics in BRICS Economies

This study opens the black box of digital development and growth asymmetries by examining how human capital, information and communication technology (ICT) infrastructure, and supply chain performance jointly influence economic growth across BRICS economies over the period 2000–2023. Grounded in endogenous growth theory, the analysis applies the Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR) to account for distributional heterogeneity and explore how these drivers operate across different levels of growth. The results reveal that human capital and supply chain logistics exert consistently positive and significant effects on economic growth across all quantiles, particularly benefiting economies at the lower end of the growth spectrum. Conversely, ICT infrastructure shows a significant negative impact in lower‐growth contexts, suggesting a digital readiness gap that limits its productivity‐enhancing potential in the absence of complementary institutional and human capacities. Robustness is ensured through cross‐sectional dependence tests, unit root analysis, and Westerlund cointegration, confirming the long‐run relationships among variables. Additionally, a fixed effects model is employed as a robustness check, corroborating the direction and significance of the MMQR findings. The results underscore the necessity for integrated policy strategies that enhance digital infrastructure while simultaneously strengthening human capital and supply chain systems to reduce growth disparities and promote inclusive development in BRICS countries.