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How Do Cancer Risks Predicted From Animal Bioassays Compare with the Epidemiologic Evidence? The Case of Ethylene Dibromide

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  • Irva Hertz‐Picciotto
  • Norman Gravitz
  • Raymond Neutra

Abstract

Cancer risks for ethylene dibromide (EDB) were estimated by fitting several linear non‐threshold additive models to data from a gavage bioassay. Risks predicted by these models were compared to the observed cancer mortality among a cohort of workers occupationally exposed to the same chemical. Models that accounted for the shortened latency period in the gavaged rats predicted upper bound risks that were within a factor of 3 of the observed cancer deaths. Data from an animal inhalation study of EDB also were compatible with the epidemiologic data. These findings contradict those of Ramsey et al. (1978), who reported that extrapolation from animal data produced highly exaggerated risk estimates for EDB‐exposed workers. This paper explores the reasons for these discrepant findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Irva Hertz‐Picciotto & Norman Gravitz & Raymond Neutra, 1988. "How Do Cancer Risks Predicted From Animal Bioassays Compare with the Epidemiologic Evidence? The Case of Ethylene Dibromide," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(2), pages 205-214, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:8:y:1988:i:2:p:205-214
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1988.tb01173.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Phillip E. Enterline, 1987. "A Method for Estimating Lifetime Cancer Risks from Limited Epidemiologic Data," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(1), pages 91-96, March.
    2. Kenny S. Clump & Richard B. Howe, 1984. "The Multistage Model with a Time‐Dependent Dose Pattern: Applications to Carcinogenic Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(3), pages 163-176, September.
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