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Estimating Fatality Reductions from Increased Safety Belt Use

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  • Leonard Evans

Abstract

Fatality reductions from increases in safety belt use are estimated taking into account that drivers who change from being nonusers to being users have lower accident involvement rates than the remaining nonusers, a process referred to as “selective recruitment.” Analytical functions are derived which express expected fatality reductions in terms of changes in safety belt use rates from an initial rate. The function parameters are determined by requiring that computed average crash rates for nonusers be 53% higher than the rates for users, a recently determined empirical value. These functions show that, depending on the initial use rate and use rate increase, selective recruitment may increase or decrease expected fatality reductions. However, effects are relatively small, in no case exceeding ±5.3%.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonard Evans, 1987. "Estimating Fatality Reductions from Increased Safety Belt Use," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(1), pages 49-57, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:7:y:1987:i:1:p:49-57
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1987.tb00968.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Leonard Evans, 1986. "Comments on Wilde's Notes on “Risk Homeostasis Theory and Traffic Accident Data”," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(1), pages 103-107, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Leonard Evans & Michael C. Frick & Richard C. Schwing, 1990. "Is It Safer to Fly or Drive?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(2), pages 239-246, June.
    2. Eric A. Latimer, 1992. "Effects of Increased Auto Safety Belt Use Levels on Fatalities," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(3), pages 449-454, September.

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