Socioeconomic Risk in Development of Energy Systems

A soft mathematical model, taking stock of the stochastic and cooperative features of the economy of thinking in the decision making, is aggregated to unveil hidden connections between energy policy and the energy technology choices of an establishment. Starting from several assumptions on the nature of the collective decisional behavior, one obtains a probabilistic interpretation of the mechanism of penetration of energy technologies. The probability that the establishment bets on a certain technological profile is given as a solution to a Fokker‐Planck equation accounting for the decision game. It provides a topological variety that accomodates possible states of the system and their trajectories, and indicates ways in which different attractors drive the technology choice in the space of the energy policy. In this framework, a series of concepts (i.e., logistic evolution, resilience, stability, risks of disruption or crisis, energy security) can find in a natural way strikingly intuitive interpretations. Strategic games are possible on this ground, confirming facts of life and also showing predictive power. The complex and difficult to manage interdependence between energy policy and technology appears as a challenge to the long‐term planning of alternative energy systems. To meet the challenge, preparedness for changes through a large freedom of choice on the technological options appears as a necessary complement to the faithful observance of the market drives, which stresses the importance of having available perceptive, coherent, reliable, and responsible mechanisms of decision making.