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Application of a Risk Analysis Tool to Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS‐CoV) Outbreak in Saudi Arabia

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  • Xin Chen
  • Abrar A. Chughtai
  • Chandini R. MacIntyre

Abstract

The Grunow–Finke assessment tool (GFT) is an accepted scoring system for determining likelihood of an outbreak being unnatural in origin. Considering its high specificity but low sensitivity, a modified Grunow–Finke tool (mGFT) has been developed with improved sensitivity. The mGFT has been validated against some past disease outbreaks, but it has not been applied to ongoing outbreaks. This study is aimed to score the outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS‐CoV) in Saudi Arabia using both the original GFT and mGFT. The publicly available data on human cases of MERS‐CoV infections reported in Saudi Arabia (2012–2018) were sourced from the FluTrackers, World Health Organization, Saudi Ministry of Health, and published literature associated with MERS outbreaks investigations. The risk assessment of MERS‐CoV in Saudi Arabia was analyzed using the original GFT and mGFT criteria, algorithms, and thresholds. The scoring points for each criterion were determined by three researchers to minimize the subjectivity. The results showed 40 points of total possible 54 points using the original GFT (likelihood: 74%), and 40 points of a total possible 60 points (likelihood: 67%) using the mGFT, both tools indicating a high likelihood that human MERS‐CoV in Saudi Arabia is unnatural in origin. The findings simply flag unusual patterns in this outbreak, but do not prove unnatural etiology. Proof of bioattacks can only be obtained by law enforcement and intelligence agencies. This study demonstrated the value and flexibility of the mGFT in assessing and predicting the risk for an ongoing outbreak with simple criteria.

Suggested Citation

  • Xin Chen & Abrar A. Chughtai & Chandini R. MacIntyre, 2020. "Application of a Risk Analysis Tool to Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS‐CoV) Outbreak in Saudi Arabia," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(5), pages 915-925, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:40:y:2020:i:5:p:915-925
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.13472
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Whenayon Simeon Ajisegiri & Abrar Ahmad Chughtai & C. Raina MacIntyre, 2018. "A Risk Analysis Approach to Prioritizing Epidemics: Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa as a Case Study," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(3), pages 429-441, March.
    2. Lauren M. Gardner & David Rey & Anita E. Heywood & Renin Toms & James Wood & S. Travis Waller & C. Raina MacIntyre, 2014. "A Scenario‐Based Evaluation of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus and the Hajj," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(8), pages 1391-1400, August.
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    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > MERS

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