IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/riskan/v39y2019i3p630-646.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling the Airborne Infection Risk of Tuberculosis for a Research Facility in eMalahleni, South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Ralf R. Küsel
  • Ian K. Craig
  • Anton C. Stoltz

Abstract

A detailed mathematical modeling framework for the risk of airborne infectious disease transmission in indoor spaces was developed to enable mathematical analysis of experiments conducted at the Airborne Infections Research (AIR) facility, eMalahleni, South Africa. A model was built using this framework to explore possible causes of why an experiment at the AIR facility did not produce expected results. The experiment was conducted at the AIR facility from August 31, 2015 to December 4, 2015, in which the efficacy of upper room germicidal ultraviolet (GUV) irradiation as an environmental control was tested. However, the experiment did not produce the expected outcome of having fewer infections in the test animal room than the control room. The simulation results indicate that dynamic effects, caused by switching the GUV lights, power outages, or introduction of new patients, did not result in the unexpected outcomes. However, a sensitivity analysis highlights that significant uncertainty exists with risk of transmission predictions based on current measurement practices, due to the reliance on large viable literature ranges for parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Ralf R. Küsel & Ian K. Craig & Anton C. Stoltz, 2019. "Modeling the Airborne Infection Risk of Tuberculosis for a Research Facility in eMalahleni, South Africa," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(3), pages 630-646, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:39:y:2019:i:3:p:630-646
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.13180
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13180
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/risa.13180?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Nicas, 1996. "An Analytical Framework for Relating Dose, Risk, and Incidence: An Application to Occupational Tuberculosis Infection," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(4), pages 527-538, August.
    2. Mark Nicas & Edmund Seto, 1997. "A Simulation Model for Occupational Tuberculosis Transmission," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(5), pages 609-616, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Charles N. Haas, 2002. "On the Risk of Mortality to Primates Exposed to Anthrax Spores," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(2), pages 189-193, April.
    2. Szu‐Chieh Chen & Chung‐Min Liao & Sih‐Syuan Li & Shu‐Han You, 2011. "A Probabilistic Transmission Model to Assess Infection Risk from Mycobacterium Tuberculosis in Commercial Passenger Trains," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(6), pages 930-939, June.
    3. Mark Nicas & Edmund Seto, 1997. "A Simulation Model for Occupational Tuberculosis Transmission," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(5), pages 609-616, October.
    4. Rachael M. Jones & Yoshifumi Masago & Timothy Bartrand & Charles N. Haas & Mark Nicas & Joan B. Rose, 2009. "Characterizing the Risk of Infection from Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Commercial Passenger Aircraft Using Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(3), pages 355-365, March.
    5. Qi Zhen & Anxiao Zhang & Qiong Huang & Jing Li & Yiming Du & Qi Zhang, 2022. "Overview of the Role of Spatial Factors in Indoor SARS-CoV-2 Transmission: A Space-Based Framework for Assessing the Multi-Route Infection Risk," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(17), pages 1-38, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:39:y:2019:i:3:p:630-646. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.