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Exploring the Uncertainties in Cancer Risk Assessment Using the Integrated Probabilistic Risk Assessment (IPRA) Approach

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  • Wout Slob
  • Martine I. Bakker
  • Jan Dirk te Biesebeek
  • Bas G. H. Bokkers

Abstract

Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N‐nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose‐incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Wout Slob & Martine I. Bakker & Jan Dirk te Biesebeek & Bas G. H. Bokkers, 2014. "Exploring the Uncertainties in Cancer Risk Assessment Using the Integrated Probabilistic Risk Assessment (IPRA) Approach," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(8), pages 1401-1422, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:34:y:2014:i:8:p:1401-1422
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12194
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hilko Van Der Voet & Wout Slob, 2007. "Integration of Probabilistic Exposure Assessment and Probabilistic Hazard Characterization," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(2), pages 351-371, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Serkan Erbis & Zeynep Ok & Jacqueline A. Isaacs & James C. Benneyan & Sagar Kamarthi, 2016. "Review of Research Trends and Methods in Nano Environmental, Health, and Safety Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(8), pages 1644-1665, August.

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