IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/riskan/v24y2004i5p1153-1164.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bayesian Monte Carlo Uncertainty Analysis of Human Health Risks from Animal Antimicrobial Use in a Dynamic Model of Emerging Resistance

Author

Listed:
  • Louis Anthony Cox
  • Douglas A. Popken

Abstract

Recent qualitative analyses warn of potential future human health risks from emergence of antibiotic resistance in food‐borne pathogens due to the use of similar antimicrobial drugs in both food animals and human medicine. While historical data suggest that human health risks from some animal antimicrobials, such as virginiamycin (VM), have remained low (McDonald et al., 2001), there is a widespread concern that “resistance epidemics” or endemics could arise in the future. How reassuring is the past about the future? This article applies quantitative risk assessment methods to help find out, using human health risks from VM and the nearly identical human antimicrobial quinupristin‐dalfopristin (QD) as a case study. A dynamic simulation model is used to predict the risks of emerging resistance to human antimicrobials in human populations from given input assumptions. Bayesian Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis allows past data to constrain and inform selection of input parameter values, and thus to predict the possible future resistance patterns that are consistent with historical data. The results show that health risks from VM use in food animals are highly sensitive to the human prescription rate of QD. For realistic prescription rates, quantitative risks are less than 1 × 10−6 even for members of the most‐threatened (ICU patient) population, while societal risks are

Suggested Citation

  • Louis Anthony Cox & Douglas A. Popken, 2004. "Bayesian Monte Carlo Uncertainty Analysis of Human Health Risks from Animal Antimicrobial Use in a Dynamic Model of Emerging Resistance," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(5), pages 1153-1164, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:24:y:2004:i:5:p:1153-1164
    DOI: 10.1111/j.0272-4332.2004.00516.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0272-4332.2004.00516.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.0272-4332.2004.00516.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Louis A. Cox & Douglas A. Popken, 2004. "Quantifying Human Health Risks from Virginiamycin Used in Chickens," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(1), pages 271-288, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox, Jr & Douglas A. Popken, 2008. "Overcoming Confirmation Bias in Causal Attribution: A Case Study of Antibiotic Resistance Risks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(5), pages 1155-1172, October.
    2. H. Gregg Claycamp, 2006. "Rapid Benefit‐Risk Assessments: No Escape from Expert Judgments in Risk Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(1), pages 147-156, February.
    3. Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox & Douglas A. Popken & Richard Carnevale, 2007. "Quantifying Human Health Risks from Animal Antimicrobials," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 37(1), pages 22-38, February.
    4. Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox & Douglas A. Popken, 2006. "Quantifying Potential Human Health Impacts of Animal Antibiotic Use: Enrofloxacin and Macrolides in Chickens," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(1), pages 135-146, February.
    5. Louis Anthony Cox, 2006. "Animal Antibiotic Use and Human Health: No Expert Judgment is Needed to Determine that Reducing Cases Reduces Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(1), pages 157-161, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. I. Forrester & J. C. Hanekamp1, 2006. "Precaution, Science and Jurisprudence: a Test Case," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 297-311, June.
    2. Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox, Jr & Douglas A. Popken, 2008. "Overcoming Confirmation Bias in Causal Attribution: A Case Study of Antibiotic Resistance Risks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(5), pages 1155-1172, October.
    3. Louis Anthony Cox & Douglas A. Popken & Jian Sun & Xiao‐ping Liao & Liang‐Xing Fang, 2020. "Quantifying Human Health Risks from Virginiamycin Use in Food Animals in China," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(6), pages 1244-1257, June.
    4. Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox Jr & Douglas A. Popken, 2010. "Assessing Potential Human Health Hazards and Benefits from Subtherapeutic Antibiotics in the United States: Tetracyclines as a Case Study," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(3), pages 432-457, March.
    5. Bethany Cooper & Walter O. Okello, 2021. "An economic lens to understanding antimicrobial resistance: disruptive cases to livestock and wastewater management in Australia," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(4), pages 900-917, October.
    6. Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox & Djangir Babayev & William Huber, 2005. "Some Limitations of Qualitative Risk Rating Systems," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(3), pages 651-662, June.
    7. Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox, Jr. & Douglas A. Popken & Jeremy J. Mathers, 2009. "Human Health Risk Assessment of Penicillin/Aminopenicillin Resistance in Enterococci Due to Penicillin Use in Food Animals," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(6), pages 796-805, June.
    8. Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox & Douglas A. Popken, 2006. "Quantifying Potential Human Health Impacts of Animal Antibiotic Use: Enrofloxacin and Macrolides in Chickens," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(1), pages 135-146, February.
    9. H. Gregg Claycamp, 2006. "Rapid Benefit‐Risk Assessments: No Escape from Expert Judgments in Risk Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(1), pages 147-156, February.
    10. Louis Anthony Cox, 2006. "Animal Antibiotic Use and Human Health: No Expert Judgment is Needed to Determine that Reducing Cases Reduces Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(1), pages 157-161, February.
    11. H. Scott Hurd & Sasidhar Malladi, 2008. "A Stochastic Assessment of the Public Health Risks of the Use of Macrolide Antibiotics in Food Animals," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(3), pages 695-710, June.
    12. Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox & Douglas A. Popken & Richard Carnevale, 2007. "Quantifying Human Health Risks from Animal Antimicrobials," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 37(1), pages 22-38, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:24:y:2004:i:5:p:1153-1164. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.