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A Perspective: Risk Analysis as a Tool for Reducing the Risks of Terrorism

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  • Paul F. Deisler

Abstract

The destruction by terrorists of the twin towers of the World Trade Center and major damage wrought to the Pentagon on September 11, 2001, followed closely by the bioterrorist anthrax attacks via the mails raised the question of whether risk analysis might have a place in defending the United States against terrorist attacks. After first reviewing the multifaceted nature of terrorism and the reasons it is likely to become endemic in world society in the long term, just as other areas of crime are endemic, this article surveys several fields of risk analysis, finding possible short‐ and long‐term uses of risk analysis. The areas chiefly considered are: risk communication and chemical, biological, and technological risk analysis. Broad policy and other uses are also considered. The author finds that risk analysis has already played some role, perhaps informally, but he sees the possibility for a much larger, formal one, a role that is centrally important for the present and future of the United States and the world.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul F. Deisler, 2002. "A Perspective: Risk Analysis as a Tool for Reducing the Risks of Terrorism," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(3), pages 405-413, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:22:y:2002:i:3:p:405-413
    DOI: 10.1111/0272-4332.00050
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    Cited by:

    1. Alvarez-Ramirez Jose & Rodriguez Eduardo & Tyrtania Leonardo & Urrea-Garcìa Galo R, 2010. "Regime-Transitions in the 2003-2010 Iraq War: An Approach Based on Correlations of Daily Fatalities," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-41, December.
    2. Shoshana Shiloh & Gülbanu Güvenç & Dilek Önkal, 2007. "Cognitive and Emotional Representations of Terror Attacks: A Cross‐Cultural Exploration," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(2), pages 397-409, April.
    3. Jesus Rios & David Rios Insua, 2012. "Adversarial Risk Analysis for Counterterrorism Modeling," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(5), pages 894-915, May.
    4. Noel T. Brewer & Sarah E. Lillie & William K. Hallman, 2006. "Why People Believe They Were Exposed to Biological or Chemical Warfare: A Survey of Gulf War Veterans," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(2), pages 337-345, April.
    5. Alvarez-Ramirez, J. & Ibarra-Valdez, C. & Rodriguez, E. & Urrea, R., 2007. "Fractality and time correlation in contemporary war," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1039-1049.
    6. Steve Jacob & Nathalie Schiffino, 2015. "Risk Policies in the United States: Definition and Characteristics Based on a Scoping Review of the Literature," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(5), pages 849-858, May.
    7. George E. Apostolakis & Douglas M. Lemon, 2005. "A Screening Methodology for the Identification and Ranking of Infrastructure Vulnerabilities Due to Terrorism," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(2), pages 361-376, April.
    8. Salter, Mark B., 2007. "SeMS and sensibility: Security management systems and the management of risk in the Canadian Air Transport Security Authority," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 389-398.
    9. Shuying Li & Jun Zhuang & Shifei Shen, 2017. "Dynamic Forecasting Conditional Probability of Bombing Attacks Based on Time‐Series and Intervention Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(7), pages 1287-1297, July.
    10. Caron Chess & Jeffrey Calia, 2002. "Letter to the Editor," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(6), pages 1039-1040, December.
    11. Walter W. Piegorsch & Susan L. Cutter & Frank Hardisty, 2007. "Benchmark Analysis for Quantifying Urban Vulnerability to Terrorist Incidents," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(6), pages 1411-1425, December.

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