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A Deliberative Method for Ranking Risks (II): Evaluation of Validity and Agreement among Risk Managers

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  • Kara M. Morgan
  • Michael L. DeKay
  • Paul S. Fischbeck
  • M. Granger Morgan
  • Baruch Fischhoff
  • H. Keith Florig

Abstract

A deliberative method for ranking risks was evaluated in a study involving 218 risk managers. Both holistic and multiattribute procedures were used to assess individual and group rankings of health and safety risks facing students at a fictitious middle school. Consistency between the rankings that emerged from these two procedures was reasonably high for individuals and for groups, suggesting that these procedures capture an underlying construct of riskiness. Participants reported high levels of satisfaction with their groups’ decision‐making processes and the resulting rankings, and these reports were corroborated by regression analyses. Risk rankings were similar across individuals and groups, even though individuals and groups did not always agree on the relative importance of risk attributes. Lower consistency between the risk rankings from the holistic and multiattribute procedures and lower agreement among individuals and groups regarding these rankings were observed for a set of high‐variance risks. Nonetheless, the generally high levels of consistency, satisfaction, and agreement suggest that this deliberative method is capable of producing risk rankings that can serve as informative inputs to public risk‐management decision making.

Suggested Citation

  • Kara M. Morgan & Michael L. DeKay & Paul S. Fischbeck & M. Granger Morgan & Baruch Fischhoff & H. Keith Florig, 2001. "A Deliberative Method for Ranking Risks (II): Evaluation of Validity and Agreement among Risk Managers," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(5), pages 923-923, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:21:y:2001:i:5:p:923-923
    DOI: 10.1111/0272-4332.215162
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicolás C. Bronfman & Luis Abdón Cifuentes & Michael L. deKay & Henry H. Willis, 2007. "Accounting for Variation in the Explanatory Power of the Psychometric Paradigm: The Effects of Aggregation and Focus," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 527-554, June.
    2. David M. Hassenzahl, 2006. "Implications of Excessive Precision for Risk Comparisons: Lessons from the Past Four Decades," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(1), pages 265-276, February.
    3. Thomas Dietz & Paul C. Stern & Amy Dan, 2009. "How Deliberation Affects Stated Willingness to Pay for Mitigation of Carbon Dioxide Emissions: An Experiment," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 85(2), pages 329-347.
    4. Baruch Fischhoff & Scott Atran & Noam Fischhoff, 2007. "Counting casualties: A framework for respectful, useful records," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 1-19, February.
    5. Henry H. Willis & Jacqueline MacDonald Gibson & Regina A. Shih & Sandra Geschwind & Sarah Olmstead & Jianhui Hu & Aimee E. Curtright & Gary Cecchine & Melinda Moore, 2010. "Prioritizing Environmental Health Risks in the UAE," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(12), pages 1842-1856, December.
    6. Irving Susel & Trace Lasley & Mark Montezemolo & Joel Piper, 2016. "Augmenting the Deliberative Method for Ranking Risks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(1), pages 49-56, January.
    7. Henry H. Willis & Michael L. DeKay & Baruch Fischhoff & M. Granger Morgan, 2005. "Aggregate, Disaggregate, and Hybrid Analyses of Ecological Risk Perceptions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(2), pages 405-428, April.
    8. Branden B. Johnson, 2004. "Risk Comparisons, Conflict, and Risk Acceptability Claims," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(1), pages 131-145, February.
    9. Henry H. Willis & Michael L. DeKay & M. Granger Morgan & H. Keith Florig & Paul S. Fischbeck, 2004. "Ecological Risk Ranking: Development and Evaluation of a Method for Improving Public Participation in Environmental Decision Making," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(2), pages 363-378, April.
    10. Branden B. Johnson, 2004. "Varying Risk Comparison Elements: Effects on Public Reactions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(1), pages 103-114, February.
    11. Hua Li & George E. Apostolakis & Joseph Gifun & William VanSchalkwyk & Susan Leite & David Barber, 2009. "Ranking the Risks from Multiple Hazards in a Small Community," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(3), pages 438-456, March.
    12. Charles Vlek, 2013. "How Solid Is the Dutch (and the British) National Risk Assessment? Overview and Decision‐Theoretic Evaluation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(6), pages 948-971, June.
    13. Lauren A. Fleishman & Wändi Bruine De Bruin & M. Granger Morgan, 2010. "Informed Public Preferences for Electricity Portfolios with CCS and Other Low‐Carbon Technologies," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(9), pages 1399-1410, September.
    14. Henry H. Willis & Michael L. DeKay, 2007. "The Roles of Group Membership, Beliefs, and Norms in Ecological Risk Perception," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(5), pages 1365-1380, October.
    15. Michael Siegrist & Philipp Hübner & Christina Hartmann, 2018. "Risk Prioritization in the Food Domain Using Deliberative and Survey Methods: Differences between Experts and Laypeople," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(3), pages 504-524, March.

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