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Probabilistic‐Based Structural Specifications

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  • Fred Moses

Abstract

The construction industry is both the largest civilian industry and the most unique in terms of fragmentation and its approach to controlling risk. Structural specifications establish nominal safety factors and design criteria for engineered structures such as buildings, bridges, dams, and power facilities. The goal is satisfactory strength capacity to safely and economically meet the demands of structural performance. Structures must resist the highly uncertain effects of combined gravity, earthquakes, wind, and snow loads supported by natural and human‐made materials. The public's expectation is that structures should last a long time and have low lifetime risk of structural failure. Historically, specifications have contained safety factors which evolved from past experiences and provided adequate safety or low risk. Due to pressures of economy and the need to optimize structural performance, structural specifications have recently been developed and accepted by industry based on structural reliability and risk‐assessment principles. This paper reviews developments of probabilistic applications in structural specifications including specification format, database, implementation examples, target risk levels, present research activities, and future goals for establishing optimal risk‐design procedures.

Suggested Citation

  • Fred Moses, 1998. "Probabilistic‐Based Structural Specifications," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(4), pages 445-454, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:18:y:1998:i:4:p:445-454
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1998.tb00359.x
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