IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/revfec/v44y2026i1ne70024.html

Measuring the performance of government bond portfolios with index‐based level, slope, and curvature factors

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Rohleder

Abstract

This paper introduces a three‐factor interest rate risk model to improve the measurement of active bond fund performance. Traditional models assume a linear relationship between risk exposure and expected returns, leading to biases. By incorporating level, slope, and curvature factors derived from Treasury index returns, the proposed model better captures the nonlinear nature of bond returns. Empirical tests on passive and active US government bond portfolios confirm its accuracy in estimating passive style returns and active alpha. The study also provides the first performance analysis of fixed‐income separate accounts, revealing their economic significance and superior value‐added performance over mutual funds.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Rohleder, 2026. "Measuring the performance of government bond portfolios with index‐based level, slope, and curvature factors," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(1), January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:revfec:v:44:y:2026:i:1:n:e70024
    DOI: 10.1002/rfe.70024
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/rfe.70024
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/rfe.70024?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2015-013 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Blake, Christopher R & Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J, 1993. "The Performance of Bond Mutual Funds," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(3), pages 370-403, July.
    3. Adam, Tim & Guettler, Andre, 2015. "Pitfalls and perils of financial innovation: The use of CDS by corporate bond funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 204-214.
    4. Diogo Palhares & Scott Richardson, 2020. "Looking under the Hood of Active Credit Managers," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 76(2), pages 82-102, April.
    5. Michael C. Jensen, 1968. "The Performance Of Mutual Funds In The Period 1945–1964," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(2), pages 389-416, May.
    6. Goldstein, Itay & Jiang, Hao & Ng, David T., 2017. "Investor flows and fragility in corporate bond funds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(3), pages 592-613.
    7. Berk, Jonathan B. & van Binsbergen, Jules H., 2015. "Measuring skill in the mutual fund industry," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 1-20.
    8. Moneta, Fabio, 2015. "Measuring bond mutual fund performance with portfolio characteristics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 223-242.
    9. Chen, Yong & Ferson, Wayne & Peters, Helen, 2010. "Measuring the timing ability and performance of bond mutual funds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 72-89, October.
    10. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    11. Jing-Zhi Huang & Ying Wang, 2014. "Timing Ability of Government Bond Fund Managers: Evidence from Portfolio Holdings," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(8), pages 2091-2109, August.
    12. Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J & Blake, Christopher R, 1995. "Fundamental Economic Variables, Expected Returns, and Bond Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1229-1256, September.
    13. Wayne Ferson & Tyler R. Henry & Darren J. Kisgen, 2006. "Evaluating Government Bond Fund Performance with Stochastic Discount Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(2), pages 423-455.
    14. Ammann, Manuel & Kind, Axel & Seiz, Ralf, 2010. "What drives the performance of convertible-bond funds?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2600-2613, November.
    15. Sebastian Bunnenberg & Martin Rohleder & Hendrik Scholz & Marco Wilkens, 2019. "Jensen's alpha and the market‐timing puzzle," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(2), pages 234-255, April.
    16. Yong Chen & Nan Qin, 2017. "The Behavior of Investor Flows in Corporate Bond Mutual Funds," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(5), pages 1365-1384, May.
    17. Cici, Gjergji & Gibson, Scott, 2012. "The Performance of Corporate Bond Mutual Funds: Evidence Based on Security-Level Holdings," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 159-178, February.
    18. Xinge Zhao, 2005. "Determinants of Flows into Retail Bond Funds," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 61(4), pages 47-59, July.
    19. Cici, Gjergji & Gibson, Scott & Merrick Jr., John J., 2011. "Missing the marks? Dispersion in corporate bond valuations across mutual funds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 206-226, July.
    20. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    21. Frazzini, Andrea & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2014. "Betting against beta," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 1-25.
    22. Hendrik Bessembinder & Kathleen M. Kahle & William F. Maxwell & Danielle Xu, 2009. "Measuring Abnormal Bond Performance," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(10), pages 4219-4258, October.
    23. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
    24. Markus Natter & Martin Rohleder & Marco Wilkens, 2021. "Maturity-Matched Bond Fund Performance," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 77(2), pages 83-96, April.
    25. Edwin J. Elton & Martin J. Gruber & Christopher R. Blake, 2014. "The Performance of Separate Accounts and Collective Investment Trusts," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(5), pages 1717-1742.
    26. Adam, Tim & Güttler, André, 2015. "Pitfalls and perils of financial innovation: The use of CDS by corporate bond funds," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2015-013, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    27. Jaewon Choi & Mathias Kronlund, 2018. "Reaching for Yield in Corporate Bond Mutual Funds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(5), pages 1930-1965.
    28. Cremers, Martijn & Petajisto, Antti & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2013. "Should Benchmark Indices Have Alpha? Revisiting Performance Evaluation," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 2(1), pages 1-48, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Yuekun & Riley, Timothy B., 2025. "How should we measure the performance of corporate bond mutual funds? Evaluating model quality and impact on inferences," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    2. Qin, Nan & Wang, Ying, 2021. "Does portfolio concentration affect performance? Evidence from corporate bond mutual funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    3. Cici, Gjergji & Zhang, Pei (Alex), 2021. "On the valuation skills of corporate bond mutual funds," CFR Working Papers 21-05, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    4. Abbas Hejri, 2022. "On the recent developments of mutual funds with fixed‐income holdings: a systematic review," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(2), pages 2313-2338, June.
    5. Yong Chen & Nan Qin, 2017. "The Behavior of Investor Flows in Corporate Bond Mutual Funds," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(5), pages 1365-1384, May.
    6. Kim, Donghyun & Li, Chengcheng & Wang, Xiaoqiong, 2021. "Risk-taking and performance of government bond mutual funds," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    7. Clare, Andrew & O'Sullivan, Niall & Sherman, Meadhbh & Zhu, Sheng, 2019. "The performance of US bond mutual funds," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-8.
    8. Dang, Thuy Duong & Hollstein, Fabian & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2022. "How do corporate bond investors measure performance? Evidence from mutual fund flows," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    9. Cai, Fang & Han, Song & Li, Dan & Li, Yi, 2019. "Institutional herding and its price impact: Evidence from the corporate bond market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1), pages 139-167.
    10. Moneta, Fabio, 2015. "Measuring bond mutual fund performance with portfolio characteristics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 223-242.
    11. Konstantinov, Gueorgui S. & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2021. "Towards a dead end? EMU bond market exposure and manager performance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    12. Cici, Gjergji & Schuster, Philipp & Weishaupt, Franziska, 2024. "Once a trader, always a trader: The role of traders in fund management," CFR Working Papers 24-01, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    13. Martin Rohleder & Hendrik Scholz & Marco Wilkens, 2018. "Success and failure on the corporate bond fund market," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(6), pages 429-443, October.
    14. Markus Natter & Martin Rohleder & Dominik Schulte & Marco Wilkens, 2017. "Bond mutual funds and complex investments," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 18(6), pages 433-456, October.
    15. Mayank Patel & Vinodh Madhavan & Supratim Gupta, 2022. "Selection ability, timing ability, and performance persistence of Indian fixed income mutual funds," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(1), pages 46-61, February.
    16. Fulkerson, Jon A. & Riley, Timothy B., 2019. "Portfolio concentration and mutual fund performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-16.
    17. Zhengnan Yin & Niall O’Sullivan & Meadhbh Sherman, 2024. "The market timing ability of bond mutual funds," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(5), pages 508-527, September.
    18. Aragon, George O. & Li, Lei & Qian, Jun ‘QJ’, 2019. "The use of credit default swaps by bond mutual funds: Liquidity provision and counterparty risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1), pages 168-185.
    19. Francesco Potente & Antonio Scalia, 2016. "Market timing and performance attribution in the ECB reserve management framework," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1062, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    20. Jing-Zhi Huang & Ying Wang, 2014. "Timing Ability of Government Bond Fund Managers: Evidence from Portfolio Holdings," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(8), pages 2091-2109, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:revfec:v:44:y:2026:i:1:n:e70024. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1002/(ISSN)1873-5924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.