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Transient Modeling of Permafrost Distribution From 1986 to 2016 in Mongolia

Author

Listed:
  • Mamoru Ishikawa
  • Sebastian Westermann
  • Yamkhin Jambaljav
  • Avirmed Dashtseren
  • Tetsuya Hiyama
  • Nobuhiko Endo
  • Bernd Etzelmüller

Abstract

The distribution of permafrost in the southernmost zones is complicated in both time and space. We assessed this complexity by applying transient heat transfer schemes to model permafrost in Mongolia between 1986 and 2016. The modeling took into account the spatial distribution of soil thermal properties and time series of ground temperature profiles observed at 69 borehole sites. Spatial modeling was forced by downscaled ERA5 air temperatures that were further debiased with local meteorological records. The results indicated that permafrost warmed by 0°C to 0.4°C/decade, most significantly in eastern and northern Hangai and at high elevations in the Altai Mountains. The extent of permafrost remained stable, but the active layer was thickened, especially after the late 1990s. Forested wet soils experienced less warming, while temperatures in soils with low organic matter and low moisture content increased by 0.5°C over the modeling period. The lower limits of mountain permafrost were estimated to be between 1320 and 2030 m a.s.l., depending on the latitude. Our permafrost map allows the delineation of a complex distribution of permafrost in Mongolia, which is strongly controlled by the spatially complex topography, landcovers, and soil wetness.

Suggested Citation

  • Mamoru Ishikawa & Sebastian Westermann & Yamkhin Jambaljav & Avirmed Dashtseren & Tetsuya Hiyama & Nobuhiko Endo & Bernd Etzelmüller, 2024. "Transient Modeling of Permafrost Distribution From 1986 to 2016 in Mongolia," Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(3), pages 326-339, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:perpro:v:35:y:2024:i:3:p:326-339
    DOI: 10.1002/ppp.2231
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. M. W. Smith & D. W. Riseborough, 2002. "Climate and the limits of permafrost: a zonal analysis," Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, March.
    2. Avirmed Dashtseren & Mamoru Ishikawa & Yoshihiro Iijima & Yamkin Jambaljav, 2014. "Temperature Regimes of the Active Layer and Seasonally Frozen Ground under a Forest‐Steppe Mosaic, Mongolia," Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(4), pages 295-306, October.
    3. Boris K. Biskaborn & Sharon L. Smith & Jeannette Noetzli & Heidrun Matthes & Gonçalo Vieira & Dmitry A. Streletskiy & Philippe Schoeneich & Vladimir E. Romanovsky & Antoni G. Lewkowicz & Andrey Abramo, 2019. "Permafrost is warming at a global scale," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, December.
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