Linear model for evaluating complex systems

The first phases of a long‐range project for developing models for the evaluation of intelligence systems in terms of measurable outputs are reported. In making such evaluations, the number of correct identifications, number of false alarms, number of displacements, and number of complete misses must be measured, in each of several categories (such as infantry, artillery, armor, supply lines), in each of a number of sectors (front line, rear, far rear), and in each of several situations (such as attack or defense, good or poor mobility). The major results to date are (1) the development of experimental techniques, (2) the formulation of an analytical model. (3) the development of analysis techniques for evaluation of parameters in the model in terms of empirical results, (4) the preliminary evaluation of parameters (rank‐order correlations of 0.8 and higher have been established between some of the analytic predictions and the empirical results), and (5) formulation of several concrete unsolved problems out of the over‐all problem. Plans for continued studv are discussed.