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Confidence bounds and propagation of uncertainties in system availability and reliability computations

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  • L. Shaw
  • M. L. Shooman

Abstract

This paper develops bounds on the uncertainties in system availabilities or reliabilities which have been computed from structural (series, parallel, etc.) relations among uncertain subsystem availabilities or reliabilities. It is assumed that the highly available (reliable) subsystems have been tested or simulated to determine their unavailabilities (unreliabilities) to within some small percentages of uncertainty. It is shown that series, parallel and r out of n structures which are nominally highly available will have unavailability uncertainties whose percentages errors are of the same order as the subsystem uncertainties. Thus overall system analysis errors, even for large systems, are of the same order of magnitude as the uncertainties in the component probabilities. Both systematic (bias type) uncertainties and independent random uncertainties are considered.

Suggested Citation

  • L. Shaw & M. L. Shooman, 1976. "Confidence bounds and propagation of uncertainties in system availability and reliability computations," Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(4), pages 673-685, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:navlog:v:23:y:1976:i:4:p:673-685
    DOI: 10.1002/nav.3800230412
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