Mapping the Climate Risk Landscape of the Diamer–Basha Dam in Pakistan: A Storyline Approach

Pakistan has recently launched the “Decade of Dam” initiative, aiming to accomplish 10 dam projects by 2030 to meet the pressing food security and energy needs. Among these projects is the multipurpose “Diamer–Bhasha” dam (D–B), strategically located on the border of Gilgit‐Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces, with a reservoir surface area of 200 km2 and a water storage capacity of 6.4 million‐acre‐feet. The study aims to assess the socio‐economic and ecological impacts of the D–B Dam and to propose strategies for mitigating associated risks. To achieve the research objective, the study employs a storyline approach. The results demonstrate that the area of very high risk (VHR) grew by 24% between 2000 and 2020. The zones categorized as moderate risk (MR) exhibited a reduction of 10% within the same period, implying improvement in disaster risk management to alleviate the susceptibility. Conversely, the zones categorized as low risk (LR) experienced a 13% increase. Zones classified as VHR are mostly clustered in the Diamer region. The D–B Dam has deepened the exposure of the population of the area to socio‐economic and ecological risks, including the carbon footprint associated with the hydropower plant, the loss of ecosystem services and sustainable livelihoods, and forced migration. The findings suggest integrated approaches for assessing the climate risk landscape in areas undergoing developmental projects, helping to guide disaster risk management policies more effectively.