Mining during the next 25 years: issues and challenges

This article examines possible future trends in the mining industry in the light of past developments. After a preliminary discussion, the article considers various aspects of demand, supply, corporate structures, geographic distribution of investment, and social and environmental factors influencing the minerals industry. Scepticism is expressed about the smooth, exponential growth envisaged by many commentators. Some risks are elaborated, and a digression about gold is included. The article argues that, while the minerals industry has concentrated on reducing cash costs through technical innovation and productivity improvement, new approaches may be needed in future that are not directly linked to economies of scale. Contracting out is an interesting trend with major implications. The view that the mineral industry's corporate structure is becoming increasingly concentrated is challenged. Developments in consumer countries as well as historical precedents strongly suggest a more diverse structure. The spread of minerals investment from North America and Australasia, and the resurgence of foreign direct investment in minerals projects, are placed in context and discussed from the viewpoints of both companies and host countries. Although the appropriate responses to many of these issues can only properly be made by governments at all levels, the industry has to play its part.