International oil market – new directions

This article focuses on changes in the international petroleum industry during the past 20 years and examines some major trends, especially since the oil price collapse of 1986. The resumption of rapid increases in oil demand since 1986 in the developed market economies and the developing world has already led to a pronounced production shift to OPEC member countries where output increased by 6.6 million barrels per day or, 37% since 1985. Cutbacks in petroleum investments in non‐OPEC countries are likely to result in even more dependence on the vast proved oil reserves of OPEC. However, the gap between peak output and sustainable production capacities in OPEC has narrowed and there is an urgent need for sizeable investments to expand capacities. Such investment programmes are already being implemented by transnational oil corporations in countries such as Indonesia and Nigeria where the companies had retained equity participation. In other countries such as Iraq and Venezuela where oil operations had been nationalized, transnational oil corporations are being invited to participate in new arrangements for oil production. New arrangements are also being considered in Eastern Europe and the USSR. New understandings, dialogue and cooperation between oil‐consuming and producing countries will be necessary for the security of investments, supplies and markets in this process. The unanswered question is whether such cooperation can be achieved in time in order to avoid yet another energy crisis.