IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jnddns/v2016y2016i1n1256168.html

Coal Price Forecasting and Structural Analysis in China

Author

Listed:
  • Xiaopeng Guo
  • Jiaxing Shi
  • Dongfang Ren

Abstract

Coal plays an important role in China’s energy structure and its price has been continuously decreasing since the second half of 2012. Constant low price of coal affected the profits of coal enterprises and the coal use of its downstream firms; the precision of coal price provides a reference for these enterprises making their management strategy. Based on the historical data of coal price and related factors such as port stocks, sales volume, futures prices, Producer Price Index (PPI), and crude oil price rate from November 2013 to June 2016, this study aims to forecast coal price using vector autoregression (VAR) model and portray the dynamic correlations between coal price and variables by the impulse response function and variance decomposition. Comparing predicted and actual values, the root mean square error (RMSE) was small which indicated good precision of this model. Thus this short period prediction can help these enterprises make the right business decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaopeng Guo & Jiaxing Shi & Dongfang Ren, 2016. "Coal Price Forecasting and Structural Analysis in China," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2016(1).
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jnddns:v:2016:y:2016:i:1:n:1256168
    DOI: 10.1155/2016/1256168
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1155/2016/1256168
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1155/2016/1256168?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bhattacharya, Mita & Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa & Bhattacharya, Sankar, 2015. "The role of technology on the dynamics of coal consumption–economic growth: New evidence from China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 686-695.
    2. Kanamura, Takashi, 2009. "A supply and demand based volatility model for energy prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 736-747, September.
    3. Yuan, Chaoqing & Liu, Sifeng & Wu, Junlong, 2010. "The relationship among energy prices and energy consumption in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 197-207, January.
    4. Robert Engle & Clive Granger, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    5. van Goor, Harm & Scholtens, Bert, 2014. "Modeling natural gas price volatility: The case of the UK gas market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 126-134.
    6. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Yao, Ting, 2016. "Interpreting the movement of oil prices: Driven by fundamentals or bubbles?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 226-240.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ansari Saleh Ahmar & Zulkifli Rais & Faika Tunnas, 2025. "Comparative analysis of support vector regression (SVR) and SutteARIMA in predicting coal prices in Indonesia," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 59(5), pages 4185-4200, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xiaopeng Guo & Jiaxing Shi & Dongfang Ren, 2016. "Coal Price Forecasting and Structural Analysis in China," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2016, pages 1-7, October.
    2. Xiaopeng Guo & Yanan Wei & Jiahai Yuan, 2016. "Will the Steam Coal Price Rebound under the New Economy Normalcy in China?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-13, September.
    3. Su, Chi-Wei & Wang, Kai-Hua & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Dumitrescu–Peculea, Adelina, 2017. "Do iron ore price bubbles occur?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 340-346.
    4. Lin, Boqiang & Long, Houyin, 2014. "How to promote energy conservation in China’s chemical industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 93-102.
    5. Muhammad Yousaf Raza & Muhammad Tauqir Sultan Shah, 2020. "Analysis of coal-related energy consumption in Pakistan: an alternative energy resource to fuel economic development," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(7), pages 6149-6170, October.
    6. Salim, Ruhul & Yao, Yao & Chen, George & Zhang, Lin, 2017. "Can foreign direct investment harness energy consumption in China? A time series investigation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 43-53.
    7. Wang, Tiantian & Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang & Shi, Xunpeng, 2020. "Market reforms and determinants of import natural gas prices in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    8. Zou, Gao Lu, 2012. "The long-term relationships among China's energy consumption sources and adjustments to its renewable energy policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 456-467.
    9. Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata K., 2016. "Asymmetric oil product pricing in India: Evidence from a multiple threshold nonlinear ARDL model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 314-328.
    10. Sun, Mei & Wang, Yaqi & Gao, Cuixia, 2016. "Visibility graph network analysis of natural gas price: The case of North American market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 462(C), pages 1-11.
    11. Khalid Khan & Chi‑Wei Su & Adnan Khurshid & Muhammad Umar, 2022. "Correction to: Are there bubbles in the vanilla price?," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 10(1), pages 1-1, December.
    12. Lin, Boqiang & Wu, Ya & Zhang, Li, 2012. "Electricity saving potential of the power generation industry in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 307-316.
    13. Fei, Rilong & Lin, Boqiang, 2017. "Estimates of energy demand and energy saving potential in China's agricultural sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 865-875.
    14. Janusz Grabara & Arsen Tleppayev & Malika Dabylova & Leonardus W. W. Mihardjo & Zdzisława Dacko-Pikiewicz, 2021. "Empirical Research on the Relationship amongst Renewable Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and Foreign Direct Investment in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-18, January.
    15. Md. Samsul Alam & Sudharshan Reddy Paramati & Muhammad Shahbaz & Mita Bhattacharya, 2017. "Natural gas, trade and sustainable growth: empirical evidence from the top gas consumers of the developing world," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(7), pages 635-649, February.
    16. Lin, Boqiang & Wang, Ailun, 2015. "Estimating energy conservation potential in China's commercial sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 147-156.
    17. Lin, Boqiang & Xie, Chunping, 2013. "Estimation on oil demand and oil saving potential of China's road transport sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 472-482.
    18. Lin, Boqiang & Long, Houyin, 2014. "Promoting carbon emissions reduction in China's chemical process industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 822-830.
    19. Bhattacharya, Mita & Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Bhattacharya, Sankar, 2017. "The regulated coal sector and CO2 emissions in Indian growth process: Empirical evidence over half a century and policy suggestions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 667-678.
    20. Bilal Mehmood & Syed Hassan Raza & Mahwish Rana & Huma Sohaib & Muhammad Azhar Khan, 2014. "Triangular Relationship between Energy Consumption, Price Index and National Income in Asian Countries: A Pooled Mean Group Approach in Presence of Structural Breaks," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(4), pages 610-620.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jnddns:v:2016:y:2016:i:1:n:1256168. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/3059 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.