IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jfutmk/v45y2025i9p1278-1297.html

Evaluating Market Downturn Connectedness Between S&P 500 Index Funds, Gold, and Oil Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Waheed Ullah Shah
  • Ibtissem Missaoui
  • Ijaz Younis
  • Xiyu Liu

Abstract

This study evaluates the market downturn connectedness between S&P 500 index funds and real‐time markets (gold and WTI) during the COVID‐19 pandemic and the Russia‐Ukraine wars. Using the TVP‐VAR approach, we explored the significant connectedness among these markets during both crisis episodes. The S&P 500 Index Fund (State Street S&P 500 Index Fund Class N) is the net risk spillover receiver in the system, whereas S&P 500 Index funds (all others) are significant volatility spillover transmitters during the COVID‐19 and Russia‐Ukraine wars. Furthermore, gold and WTI receive net risk spillovers in both crises. However, all S&P 500 index funds are also pairwise and extensively connected with real‐time markets (gold and WTI) in the COVID‐19 and Russia‐Ukraine wars. This study offers potential investment insights for shareholders, traders, speculators, and portfolio managers in these markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Waheed Ullah Shah & Ibtissem Missaoui & Ijaz Younis & Xiyu Liu, 2025. "Evaluating Market Downturn Connectedness Between S&P 500 Index Funds, Gold, and Oil Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(9), pages 1278-1297, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:45:y:2025:i:9:p:1278-1297
    DOI: 10.1002/fut.22608
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.22608
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/fut.22608?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Miklesh Prasad Yadav & Shikha Bhatia & Nidhi Singh & Md Tarikul Islam, 2024. "Financial and energy exchange traded funds futures: an evidence of spillover and portfolio hedging," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 333(1), pages 501-516, February.
    2. Kang, Sanghoon & Hernandez, Jose Arreola & Sadorsky, Perry & McIver, Ronald, 2021. "Frequency spillovers, connectedness, and the hedging effectiveness of oil and gold for US sector ETFs," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    3. Shah, Adil Ahmad & Dar, Arif Billah, 2021. "Exploring diversification opportunities across commodities and financial markets: Evidence from time-frequency based spillovers," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    4. Dai, Zhifeng & Zhu, Haoyang & Zhang, Xinhua, 2022. "Dynamic spillover effects and portfolio strategies between crude oil, gold and Chinese stock markets related to new energy vehicle," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    5. Zunxin Zheng & Gaiyan Zhang & Yingzhao Ni, 2024. "Financial regulatory arbitrage and the financialization of commodities," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(5), pages 826-853, May.
    6. Ali, Shoaib & Ijaz, Muhammad Shahzad & Yousaf, Imran, 2023. "Dynamic spillovers and portfolio risk management between defi and metals: Empirical evidence from the Covid-19," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    7. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S. & Al-Faryan, Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh, 2022. "Does oil connect differently with prominent assets during war? Analysis of intra-day data during the Russia-Ukraine saga," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    8. Phylaktis, Kate & Ravazzolo, Fabiola, 2002. "Measuring financial and economic integration with equity prices in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 879-903, November.
    9. Zhenghui Li & Zhiming Ao & Bin Mo, 2021. "Revisiting the Valuable Roles of Global Financial Assets for International Stock Markets: Quantile Coherence and Causality-in-Quantiles Approaches," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(15), pages 1-18, July.
    10. Chen, Ruoyu & Iqbal, Najaf & Irfan, Muhammad & Shahzad, Farrukh & Fareed, Zeeshan, 2022. "Does financial stress wreak havoc on banking, insurance, oil, and gold markets? New empirics from the extended joint connectedness of TVP-VAR model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    11. Liu, Xiaoxing & Shehzad, Khurram & Kocak, Emrah & Zaman, Umer, 2022. "Dynamic correlations and portfolio implications across stock and commodity markets before and during the COVID-19 era: A key role of gold," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    12. Elroi Hadad & Davinder Malhotra & Srinivas Nippani, 2024. "Trading commodity ETFs: Price behavior, investment insights, and performance analysis," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(7), pages 1257-1276, July.
    13. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Gabauer, David, 2017. "Refined Measures of Dynamic Connectedness based on TVP-VAR," MPRA Paper 78282, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Aktham Issa Maghyereh & Hussein A. Abdoh, 2022. "COVID-19 pandemic and volatility interdependence between gold and financial assets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(13), pages 1473-1486, March.
    15. Papathanasiou, Spyros & Dokas, Ioannis & Koutsokostas, Drosos, 2022. "Value investing versus other investment strategies: A volatility spillover approach and portfolio hedging strategies for investors," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    16. Kyriazis, Nikolaos & Corbet, Shaen, 2024. "Evaluating the dynamic connectedness of financial assets and bank indices during black-swan events: A Quantile-VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    17. Diebold, Francis X. & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2014. "On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 119-134.
    18. Ding, Qian & Huang, Jianbai & Chen, Jinyu, 2021. "Dynamic and frequency-domain risk spillovers among oil, gold, and foreign exchange markets: Evidence from implied volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    19. Dutta, Anupam & Bouri, Elie & Noor, Md Hasib, 2021. "Climate bond, stock, gold, and oil markets: Dynamic correlations and hedging analyses during the COVID-19 outbreak," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    20. Miklesh Prasad Yadav & Shikha Bhatia & Nidhi Singh & Md Tarikul Islam, 2024. "Correction to: Financial and energy exchange traded funds futures: an evidence of spillover and portfolio hedging," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 332(1), pages 1177-1177, January.
    21. Yousaf, Imran & Youssef, Manel & Goodell, John W., 2022. "Quantile connectedness between sentiment and financial markets: Evidence from the S&P 500 twitter sentiment index," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    22. Yousaf, Imran & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2022. "Static and dynamic connectedness between NFTs, Defi and other assets: Portfolio implication," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    23. Waqas Hanif & Hee-Un Ko & Linh Pham & Sang Hoon Kang, 2023. "Dynamic connectedness and network in the high moments of cryptocurrency, stock, and commodity markets," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-40, December.
    24. Golitsis, Petros & Gkasis, Pavlos & Bellos, Sotirios K., 2022. "Dynamic spillovers and linkages between gold, crude oil, S&P 500, and other economic and financial variables. Evidence from the USA," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    25. Fang Liang & Lingshan Du, 2024. "Option pricing with dynamic conditional skewness," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(7), pages 1154-1188, July.
    26. Dimitriou, Dimitrios & Kenourgios, Dimitris & Simos, Theodore, 2013. "Global financial crisis and emerging stock market contagion: A multivariate FIAPARCH–DCC approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 46-56.
    27. Nathan Converse & Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Tomas Williams, 2023. "How ETFs Amplify the Global Financial Cycle in Emerging Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 36(9), pages 3423-3462.
    28. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    29. Xuan, Quansheng & Li, Zhiyong & Zhao, Tianyu, 2024. "Does systemic risk affect fund managers' tail risk-taking?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    30. Collin Gilstrap & Alex Petkevich & Pavel Teterin & Kainan Wang, 2024. "Lever up! An analysis of options trading in leveraged ETFs," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(6), pages 986-1002, June.
    31. Zhou, Dong-hai & Liu, Xiao-xing, 2024. "Does systemic risk in the fund markets predict future economic downturns?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    32. Wang, Danxia, 2024. "Beyond active share: Boosting fund performance through common holdings with same-benchmark mutual funds," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    33. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2020. "Refined Measures of Dynamic Connectedness based on Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressions," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, April.
    34. Farid, Saqib & Kayani, Ghulam Mujtaba & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2021. "Intraday volatility transmission among precious metals, energy and stocks during the COVID-19 pandemic," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    35. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    36. Shah, Adil Ahmad & Dar, Arif Billah, 2022. "Asymmetric, time and frequency-based spillover transmission in financial and commodity markets," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    37. Hechem Ajmi & Nadia Arfaoui & Karima Saci, 2021. "Volatility transmission across international markets amid COVID 19 pandemic," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 38(5), pages 926-945, June.
    38. Ozcelebi, Oguzhan & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2024. "Extreme connectedness and network across financial assets and commodity futures markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    39. repec:eme:sef000:sef-11-2020-0449 is not listed on IDEAS
    40. Mark Egan & Alexander MacKay & Hanbin Yang, 2022. "Recovering Investor Expectations from Demand for Index Funds," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(5), pages 2559-2599.
    41. Dai, Zhifeng & Zhu, Haoyang, 2022. "Time-varying spillover effects and investment strategies between WTI crude oil, natural gas and Chinese stock markets related to belt and road initiative," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yousaf, Imran & Cui, Jinxin & Ali, Shoaib, 2024. "Dynamic spillover between green cryptocurrencies and stocks: A portfolio implication," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    2. Younis, Ijaz & Shah, Waheed Ullah & Yousaf, Imran, 2023. "Static and dynamic linkages between oil, gold and global equity markets in various crisis episodes: Evidence from the Wavelet TVP-VAR," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    3. Cui, Jinxin & Maghyereh, Aktham, 2023. "Higher-order moment risk connectedness and optimal investment strategies between international oil and commodity futures markets: Insights from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    4. Szafranek, Karol & Rubaszek, Michał & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2024. "The role of uncertainty and sentiment for intraday volatility connectedness between oil and financial markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    5. Wang, Jue & Zhou, Yuqin & Wu, Shan, 2025. "Quantile time-frequency connectedness and portfolio diversification: A study of clean energy and metal markets," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    6. Hadad, Elroi & Malhotra, Davinder & Vasileiou, Evangelos, 2024. "Risk spillovers and optimal hedging in commodity ETFs: A TVP-VAR Approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    7. Al-Nassar, Nassar S. & Assaf, Rima & Chaibi, Anis & Makram, Beljid, 2024. "The nexus between mineral, renewable commodities, and regional stock sectors during health and military crises," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    8. Sahoo, Satyaban, 2024. "Harmony in diversity: Exploring connectedness and portfolio strategies among crude oil, gold, traditional and sustainable index," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    9. Spyros Papathanasiou & Dimitris Kenourgios & Drosos Koutsokostas & Georgios Pergeris, 2023. "Can treasury inflation-protected securities safeguard investors from outward risk spillovers? A portfolio hedging strategy through the prism of COVID-19," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(3), pages 198-211, May.
    10. Tuna Can Güleç & Elif Erer & Selim Duramaz, 2026. "Cryptocurrencies as shock transmitters: dynamic connectedness, hedging strategies, and portfolio management across financial markets for higher-order moments," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 1-58, December.
    11. SeungOh Han, 2026. "Volatility spillovers and portfolio diversification strategies after the 2023 Israel–Hamas conflict," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 1-45, December.
    12. Kayani, Umar & Ullah, Mirzat & Aysan, Ahmet Faruk & Nazir, Sidra & Frempong, Josephine, 2024. "Quantile connectedness among digital assets, traditional assets, and renewable energy prices during extreme economic crisis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    13. Just, Małgorzata & Kliber, Agata & Echaust, Krzysztof, 2025. "Return connectedness between energy commodities and stock markets: New evidence from 31 energy sector companies in Europe," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    14. Hao, Xinlei & Ma, Yong & Pan, Dongtao, 2024. "Geopolitical risk and the predictability of spillovers between exchange, commodity and stock markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    15. Guannan Wang & Juan Meng & Bin Mo, 2023. "Dynamic Volatility Spillover Effects and Portfolio Strategies among Crude Oil, Gold, and Chinese Electricity Companies," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-25, February.
    16. Shang, Jin & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2024. "Quantile time-frequency connectedness analysis between crude oil, gold, financial markets, and macroeconomic indicators: Evidence from the US and EU," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    17. Chen, Ying & Zhu, Xuehong & Chen, Jinyu, 2022. "Spillovers and hedging effectiveness of non-ferrous metals and sub-sectoral clean energy stocks in time and frequency domain," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    18. Ji, Hao & Naeem, Muhammad & Zhang, Jing & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2024. "Dynamic dependence and spillover among the energy related ETFs: From the hedging effectiveness perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    19. Lei, Heng & Xue, Minggao & Ye, Jing, 2024. "The nexus between ReFi, carbon, fossil energy, and clean energy assets: Quantile time–frequency connectedness and portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    20. Papathanasiou, Spyros & Syriopoulos, Theodore & Kenourgios, Dimitris & Koutsokostas, Drosos, 2025. "Sailing through uncertainty: Shipping's role in financial shock transmission and hedging strategies," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:45:y:2025:i:9:p:1278-1297. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0270-7314/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.