IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jfutmk/v45y2025i12p2232-2261.html

A Note on the Relationship Between Stock Market Volatility and Cryptocurrencies: New Evidence From China–US Trade Frictions

Author

Listed:
  • Kexin Liu
  • Viktor Manahov
  • Dimitrios Stafylas

Abstract

In the context of China–US trade friction, we use the TVP‐VAR, SHAP, DECO, and CDB model to test the spillover volatility, hedging, safe haven, and portfolio returns of cryptocurrencies based on daily data of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Ripple, CSI300 Index, Shanghai Composite Index, S&P500 Index, and Nasdaq Index. The results show a significant short‐term time‐varying asymmetric volatility spillover effect between cryptocurrencies and the US and Chinese stock markets. Cryptocurrencies can be used as short‐term hedging assets for the Chinese stock market. The evidence also shows no long‐term correlation between cryptocurrencies and the stock market. Therefore, in periods of volatility caused by trade friction between the two countries, such as the imposition of high tariffs, investors can regard cryptocurrencies as short‐term hedging assets and long‐term safe haven assets to mitigate losses caused by stock market fluctuations. In addition, adding cryptocurrencies to stock index portfolios can significantly diversify risks and increase returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Kexin Liu & Viktor Manahov & Dimitrios Stafylas, 2025. "A Note on the Relationship Between Stock Market Volatility and Cryptocurrencies: New Evidence From China–US Trade Frictions," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(12), pages 2232-2261, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:45:y:2025:i:12:p:2232-2261
    DOI: 10.1002/fut.70034
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.70034
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/fut.70034?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, May.
    2. Imen Omri, 2023. "Directional predictability and volatility spillover effect from stock market indexes to Bitcoin: evidence from developed and emerging markets," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 24(2), pages 226-243, January.
    3. Jebabli, Ikram & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2014. "On the effects of world stock market and oil price shocks on food prices: An empirical investigation based on TVP-VAR models with stochastic volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 66-98.
    4. Wei Jiang & Yanyu Zhang, 2023. "Carbon assets and Bitcoin: Hedging roles in global stock markets during the tranquil and turbulent periods?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(9), pages 1183-1203, September.
    5. Jiang, Yonghong & Lie, Jiayi & Wang, Jieru & Mu, Jinqi, 2021. "Revisiting the roles of cryptocurrencies in stock markets: A quantile coherency perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 21-34.
    6. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Benlagha, Noureddine & Maouchi, Youcef, 2020. "Investigating the dynamic relationship between cryptocurrencies and conventional assets: Implications for financial investors," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 198-217.
    7. Uzonwanne, Godfrey, 2021. "Volatility and return spillovers between stock markets and cryptocurrencies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 30-36.
    8. Conlon, Thomas & McGee, Richard, 2020. "Safe haven or risky hazard? Bitcoin during the Covid-19 bear market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    9. Sercan Demiralay & Selçuk Bayracı, 2021. "Should stock investors include cryptocurrencies in their portfolios after all? Evidence from a conditional diversification benefits measure," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 6188-6204, October.
    10. repec:dau:papers:123456789/3549 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Corbet, Shaen & Lucey, Brian & Urquhart, Andrew & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2019. "Cryptocurrencies as a financial asset: A systematic analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 182-199.
    12. Gambarelli, Luca & Marchi, Gianluca & Muzzioli, Silvia, 2023. "Hedging effectiveness of cryptocurrencies in the European stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    13. Bouri, Elie & Azzi, Georges & Dyhrberg, Anne Haubo, 2017. "On the return-volatility relationship in the Bitcoin market around the price crash of 2013," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 11, pages 1-16.
    14. Vuković, Darko B. & Frömmel, Michael & Vigne, Samuel A. & Zinovev, Vyacheslav, 2025. "Spillovers between cryptocurrencies and financial markets in a global framework," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    15. Nakajima Jouchi, 2011. "Monetary Policy Transmission under Zero Interest Rates: An Extended Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression Approach," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-24, October.
    16. Cao, Guangxi & Xie, Wenhao, 2022. "Asymmetric dynamic spillover effect between cryptocurrency and China's financial market: Evidence from TVP-VAR based connectedness approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    17. Dwita Mariana, Christy & Ekaputra, Irwan Adi & Husodo, Zaäfri Ananto, 2021. "Are Bitcoin and Ethereum safe-havens for stocks during the COVID-19 pandemic?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    18. Goodell, John W. & Goutte, Stephane, 2021. "Diversifying equity with cryptocurrencies during COVID-19," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    19. Marco Del Negro & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2015. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy: A Corrigendum," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(4), pages 1342-1345.
    20. Jocelyn Grira & Sana Guizani & Ines Kahloul, 2022. "Bitcoin's hedging attributes against equity market volatility: empirical evidence during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 23(5), pages 605-618, August.
    21. Peter H. Egger & Jiaqing Zhu, 2021. "Dynamic network and own effects on abnormal returns: evidence from China’s stock market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 487-512, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ismail Jirou & Ikram Jebabli & Mohammad Isleimeyyeh & Elie Bouri, 2026. "Multivariate transmission of conditional mutual information based on partial correlation among cryptocurrencies and financial markets around various crisis periods," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 16(1), pages 241-269, March.
    2. Just, Małgorzata & Echaust, Krzysztof, 2024. "Cryptocurrencies against stock market risk: New insights into hedging effectiveness," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    3. Diniz-Maganini, Natalia & Diniz, Eduardo H. & Rasheed, Abdul A., 2021. "Bitcoin’s price efficiency and safe haven properties during the COVID-19 pandemic: A comparison," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    4. Ha, Le Thanh & Nham, Nguyen Thi Hong, 2022. "An application of a TVP-VAR extended joint connected approach to explore connectedness between WTI crude oil, gold, stock and cryptocurrencies during the COVID-19 health crisis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    5. Ismail Adelopo & Xiaojun Luo, 2025. "Interconnectedness among cryptocurrencies and financial markets: a systematic literature review," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 1119-1171, December.
    6. Susovon Jana & Tarak N. Sahu, 2023. "Is the cryptocurrency market a hedge against stock market risk? A Wavelet and GARCH approach," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 52(3), November.
    7. Syuhada, Khreshna & Hakim, Arief & Suprijanto, Djoko & Muchtadi-Alamsyah, Intan & Arbi, Lukman, 2022. "Is Tether a safe haven of safe haven amid COVID-19? An assessment against Bitcoin and oil using improved measures of risk," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    8. Aharon, David Y. & Butt, Hassan Anjum & Jaffri, Ali & Nichols, Brian, 2023. "Asymmetric volatility in the cryptocurrency market: New evidence from models with structural breaks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    9. Ştefan Cristian Gherghina & Liliana Nicoleta Simionescu, 2023. "Exploring the asymmetric effect of COVID-19 pandemic news on the cryptocurrency market: evidence from nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approach and frequency domain causality," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-58, December.
    10. Jareño, Francisco & González, María de la O. & López, Raquel & Ramos, Ana Rosa, 2021. "Cryptocurrencies and oil price shocks: A NARDL analysis in the COVID-19 pandemic," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    11. Hsu, Shu-Han & Cheng, Po-Keng & Yang, Yiwen, 2024. "Diversification, hedging, and safe-haven characteristics of cryptocurrencies: A structural change approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    12. Jiang, Shangrong & Li, Yuze & Lu, Quanying & Wang, Shouyang & Wei, Yunjie, 2022. "Volatility communicator or receiver? Investigating volatility spillover mechanisms among Bitcoin and other financial markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    13. Tachibana, Minoru, 2022. "Safe haven assets for international stock markets: A regime-switching factor copula approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    14. Khaki, Audil & Prasad, Mason & Al-Mohamad, Somar & Bakry, Walid & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2023. "Re-evaluating portfolio diversification and design using cryptocurrencies: Are decentralized cryptocurrencies enough?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    15. Zhang, Pengcheng & Xu, Kunpeng & Qi, Jiayin, 2023. "The impact of regulation on cryptocurrency market volatility in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic — evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 222-246.
    16. Ustaoglu, Erkan, 2022. "Safe-haven properties and portfolio applications of cryptocurrencies: Evidence from the emerging markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    17. Bouteska, Ahmed & Sharif, Taimur & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul, 2023. "Volatility spillovers and other dynamics between cryptocurrencies and the energy and bond markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 1-13.
    18. Wei Kuang, 2025. "Greening crypto portfolios: the diversification and safe haven potential of clean cryptocurrencies," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-23, December.
    19. Kliber, Agata, 2022. "Looking for a safe haven against American stocks during COVID-19 pandemic," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    20. Bojaj, Martin M. & Muhadinovic, Milica & Bracanovic, Andrej & Mihailovic, Andrej & Radulovic, Mladen & Jolicic, Ivan & Milosevic, Igor & Milacic, Veselin, 2022. "Forecasting macroeconomic effects of stablecoin adoption: A Bayesian approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:45:y:2025:i:12:p:2232-2261. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0270-7314/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.