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TiF: A Multi‐Scale Data Fusion and Fourier Encoding Framework for Financial Risk Prediction

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  • Haomin Zhang
  • Puyu Zhou

Abstract

Financial forecasting often treats annual, quarterly, and monthly information in isolation, which harms robustness in volatile markets. We present Time‐integrated Fourier (TiF), a lightweight framework that fuses annual, quarterly, and monthly signals via energy‐based Fourier encoding and a compact 1D‐CNN backbone with learnable cross‐timescale gating. TiF is evaluated under a standardized rolling‐origin expanding‐window protocol on a core technology benchmark (Apple, Microsoft, Adobe) and further examined on two external validations: (A) a non‐financial EBITDA cohort ( N=105) and (B) a finance‐sector cohort with ROAA as the target. Across studies, some baselines attain the best single‐metric scores (e.g., a Transformer for R2, CatBoost for RMSE), whereas TiF delivers consistently strong and balanced performance over R2/RMSE/MAPE with small variance and modest parameter counts. Ablations quantify the contribution of Fourier bands and each timescale branch, and robustness checks confirm the same qualitative ranking across winsorization/clipping settings. All experiments share identical preprocessing, validation length, and hyperparameter budgets, and we report mean ± SD across rolling origins and seeds to ensure fair comparison.

Suggested Citation

  • Haomin Zhang & Puyu Zhou, 2026. "TiF: A Multi‐Scale Data Fusion and Fourier Encoding Framework for Financial Risk Prediction," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(6), pages 3030-3040, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:45:y:2026:i:6:p:3030-3040
    DOI: 10.1002/for.70172
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