IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jforec/v45y2026i1p260-271.html

Multi‐Classifier Evidence Ensemble Algorithm‐Based for Predicting Travelers Repurchases of China's Airlines

Author

Listed:
  • Yanhong Chen
  • Luning Liu
  • Dequan Zheng

Abstract

Repurchase prediction is a vital aspect of marketing strategy and a complex decision‐making task, especially in the airline industry, where data are uncertain, incomplete, and ambiguous. To address this, this study proposes a novel multi‐classifier evidence ensemble algorithm that integrates evidence theory with machine learning to predict travelers' repurchase behavior. The model was trained using 29 behavioral features derived from a low‐cost Chinese airline. Empirical results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms traditional models in terms of the accuracy, the precision, the recall, the F1‐score, and the AUC. Specifically, it achieved over 80% accuracy and precision in binary classification tasks. Ablation experiments using four classifier combinations at different sampling rates (30%, 50%, and 70%) further validated the robustness and effectiveness of the framework. The results suggest that the proposed ensemble framework outperforms traditional prediction models in terms of overall predictive performance for analyzing airline passenger behavior in real‐world settings.

Suggested Citation

  • Yanhong Chen & Luning Liu & Dequan Zheng, 2026. "Multi‐Classifier Evidence Ensemble Algorithm‐Based for Predicting Travelers Repurchases of China's Airlines," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(1), pages 260-271, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:45:y:2026:i:1:p:260-271
    DOI: 10.1002/for.70026
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/for.70026
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/for.70026?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jiaming Liu & Xuemei Zhang & Haitao Xiong, 2024. "Credit risk prediction based on causal machine learning: Bayesian network learning, default inference, and interpretation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 1625-1660, August.
    2. Cao, Lanlan & Manthiou, Aikaterini & Ayadi, Kafia, 2022. "Extension and customer reaction on sharing economy platforms: The role of customer inertia," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 513-522.
    3. Shi Qiu & Yuansheng Luo & Hongwei Guo, 2021. "Multisource evidence theory‐based fraud risk assessment of China's listed companies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1524-1539, December.
    4. Liu, Hongfei & Meng-Lewis, Yue & Ibrahim, Fahad & Zhu, Xia, 2021. "Superfoods, super healthy: Myth or reality? Examining consumers’ repurchase and WOM intention regarding superfoods: A theory of consumption values perspective," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 69-88.
    5. Kim, Jina & Ji, HongGeun & Oh, Soyoung & Hwang, Syjung & Park, Eunil & del Pobil, Angel P., 2021. "A deep hybrid learning model for customer repurchase behavior," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    6. Hwang, Syjung & Kim, Jina & Park, Eunil & Kwon, Sang Jib, 2020. "Who will be your next customer: A machine learning approach to customer return visits in airline services," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 121-126.
    7. Martins, José & Costa, Catarina & Oliveira, Tiago & Gonçalves, Ramiro & Branco, Frederico, 2019. "How smartphone advertising influences consumers' purchase intention," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 378-387.
    8. Bag, Sujoy & Tiwari, Manoj Kumar & Chan, Felix T.S., 2019. "Predicting the consumer's purchase intention of durable goods: An attribute-level analysis," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 408-419.
    9. Sullivan, Yulia W. & Kim, Dan J., 2018. "Assessing the effects of consumers’ product evaluations and trust on repurchase intention in e-commerce environments," International Journal of Information Management, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 199-219.
    10. Zaremohzzabieh, Zeinab & Ismail, Normala & Ahrari, Seyedali & Abu Samah, Asnarulkhadi, 2021. "The effects of consumer attitude on green purchase intention: A meta-analytic path analysis," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 732-743.
    11. Baesens, Bart & Viaene, Stijn & Van den Poel, Dirk & Vanthienen, Jan & Dedene, Guido, 2002. "Bayesian neural network learning for repeat purchase modelling in direct marketing," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 191-211, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Esmeli, Ramazan & Bader-El-Den, Mohamed & Abdullahi, Hassana, 2022. "An analyses of the effect of using contextual and loyalty features on early purchase prediction of shoppers in e-commerce domain," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 420-434.
    2. Hu, Hui & Xu, Jiajun & Liu, Mengqi & Lim, Ming K., 2023. "Vaccine supply chain management: An intelligent system utilizing blockchain, IoT and machine learning," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    3. Chou, Ping & Chuang, Howard Hao-Chun & Chou, Yen-Chun & Liang, Ting-Peng, 2022. "Predictive analytics for customer repurchase: Interdisciplinary integration of buy till you die modeling and machine learning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 296(2), pages 635-651.
    4. Rosillo-Díaz, Elena & Muñoz-Rosas, Juan Francisco & Blanco-Encomienda, Francisco Javier, 2024. "Impact of heuristic–systematic cues on the purchase intention of the electronic commerce consumer through the perception of product quality," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    5. Van den Poel, Dirk & Lariviere, Bart, 2004. "Customer attrition analysis for financial services using proportional hazard models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 157(1), pages 196-217, August.
    6. Margarita De-Miguel-Guzmán & Carlos Ronquillo-Bolaños & Alexander Sánchez-Rodríguez & Gelmar García-Vidal & Reyner Pérez-Campdesuñer & Rodobaldo Martínez-Vivar, 2020. "Analysis of the Effectiveness of Advertising Messages. Comparison by Media, Typology, and Schedule of Advertisements," Tržište/Market, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 32(1), pages 27-46.
    7. Baesens, Bart & Verstraeten, Geert & Van den Poel, Dirk & Egmont-Petersen, Michael & Van Kenhove, Patrick & Vanthienen, Jan, 2004. "Bayesian network classifiers for identifying the slope of the customer lifecycle of long-life customers," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 156(2), pages 508-523, July.
    8. B Baesens & T Van Gestel & S Viaene & M Stepanova & J Suykens & J Vanthienen, 2003. "Benchmarking state-of-the-art classification algorithms for credit scoring," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 54(6), pages 627-635, June.
    9. Osarodion Ogiemwonyi & Muhammad Tahir Jan, 2025. "Causal analysis of social media on environmental and health concerns, attitudes, and social influence that leads to green purchase behavior," International Review on Public and Nonprofit Marketing, Springer;International Association of Public and Non-Profit Marketing, vol. 22(3), pages 713-749, September.
    10. Ratilla, Mark & Salgado, Stéphane & Cavite, Harry Jay & Dey, Sandeep, 2025. "Peer-provider participation in the sharing economy: The moderating role of warm glow emotion and underlying motivations," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    11. Cheah, Jun-Hwa & Lim, Xin-Jean & Ting, Hiram & Liu, Yide & Quach, Sara, 2022. "Are privacy concerns still relevant? Revisiting consumer behaviour in omnichannel retailing," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    12. Pizzetti, Marta & Chereau, Philippe & Soscia, Isabella & Teng, Fangyuan, 2023. "Attitudes and intentions toward masstige strategies: A cross-cultural study of French and Chinese consumers," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    13. Syed Far Abid Hossain & Zhao Xi & Mohammad Nurunnabi & Khalid Hussain, 2020. "Ubiquitous Role of Social Networking in Driving M-Commerce: Evaluating the Use of Mobile Phones for Online Shopping and Payment in the Context of Trust," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(3), pages 21582440209, July.
    14. Naman Sreen & Swetarupa Chatterjee & Seema Bhardwaj & Asmita Chitnis, 2023. "Reasons and intuitions: extending behavioural reasoning theory to determine green purchase behavior," International Review on Public and Nonprofit Marketing, Springer;International Association of Public and Non-Profit Marketing, vol. 20(2), pages 447-475, June.
    15. Luis Castro-Martín & Maria del Mar Rueda & Ramón Ferri-García, 2020. "Inference from Non-Probability Surveys with Statistical Matching and Propensity Score Adjustment Using Modern Prediction Techniques," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-19, June.
    16. Zhen-Song Chen & Sheng Wu & Kannan Govindan & Xian-Jia Wang & Kwai-Sang Chin & Luis Martíınez, 2022. "Optimal pricing decision in a multi-channel supply chain with a revenue-sharing contract," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 318(1), pages 67-102, November.
    17. Brandner, Hubertus & Lessmann, Stefan & Voß, Stefan, 2013. "A memetic approach to construct transductive discrete support vector machines," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 230(3), pages 581-595.
    18. Son, Youngdoo & Kim, Wonjoon, 2023. "Development of methodology for classification of user experience (UX) in online customer review," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    19. Krishen, Anjala S. & Barnes, Jesse L. & Hu, Han-fen, 2025. "Consumer knowledge and sustainable decision-making: A mixed-method inquiry and proposed model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    20. Hongbo Guo & Mengtong Lu & Lili Ding, 2022. "The Effect of Consumer Sentiment on Manufacturers’ Green Technology Innovation: A RDEU Evolutionary Game Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-18, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:45:y:2026:i:1:p:260-271. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.