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Using accounting‐based information on young firms to predict bankruptcy

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  • Christian Lohmann
  • Thorsten Ohliger

Abstract

This study analyzes the nonlinear relationships between accounting‐based key performance indicators and the probability that the firm in question will become bankrupt or not. The analysis focuses particularly on young firms and examines whether these nonlinear relationships are affected by a firm's age. The analysis of nonlinear relationships between various predictors of bankruptcy and their interaction effects is based on a structured additive regression model and on a comprehensive data set on German firms. The results of this analysis provide empirical evidence that a firm's age has a considerable effect on how accounting‐based key performance indicators can be used to predict the likelihood that a firm will go bankrupt. More specifically, the results show that there are differences between older firms and young firms with respect to the nonlinear effects of the equity ratio, the return on assets, and the sales growth on their probability of bankruptcy.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Lohmann & Thorsten Ohliger, 2019. "Using accounting‐based information on young firms to predict bankruptcy," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(8), pages 803-819, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:38:y:2019:i:8:p:803-819
    DOI: 10.1002/for.2586
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    Cited by:

    1. Xavier Brédart & Eric Séverin & David Veganzones, 2021. "Human resources and corporate failure prediction modeling: Evidence from Belgium," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 1325-1341, November.
    2. Bekirova, Olga & Zubarev, Andrey, 2022. "Макроэкономические Факторы Банкротства Компаний Обрабатывающей Отрасли В Российской Федерации [Macroeconomic Factors of Corporate Bankruptcy in the Manufacturing Sector in the Russian Federation]," MPRA Paper 114968, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Olga A. Bekirova & Andrey V. Zubarev, 2022. "Оценка Вероятности Банкротства Компаний Обрабатывающей Промышленности С Учетом Макроэкономической Конъюнктуры," Russian Economic Development (in Russian), Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 12, pages 18-27, December.
    4. Shoukat Ali & Ramiz ur Rehman & Wang Yuan & Muhammad Ishfaq Ahmad & Rizwan Ali, 2022. "Does foreign institutional ownership mediate the nexus between board diversity and the risk of financial distress? A case of an emerging economy of China," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 12(3), pages 553-581, September.
    5. Olga A. Bekirova & Andrey V. Zubarev, 2022. "Estimating the Bankruptcy Probability of Manufacturing Companies Considering Macroeconomic Conditions [Оценка Вероятности Банкротства Компаний Обрабатывающей Промышленности С Учетом Макроэкономичес," Russian Economic Development, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 12, pages 18-27, December.
    6. Bekirova, Olga & Zubarev, Andrey, 2022. "Эконометрический Анализ Факторов Банкротств Российских Компаний В Обрабатывающем Секторе [Econometric Analysis of Bankruptcy Factors for Russian Companies in the Manufacturing Industry]," MPRA Paper 114969, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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