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A forecasting analysis of risk‐neutral equity and Treasury volatilities

Author

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  • Ana González‐Urteaga
  • Belén Nieto
  • Gonzalo Rubio

Abstract

This paper employs equity (VIX) and Treasury (MOVE) risk‐neutral volatilities to assess their relative forecasting performance with respect to future real activity, stock and Treasury excess returns, and aggregate risk factors. The in‐sample evidence suggests that the square of VIX tends to dominate the square of MOVE. Out‐of‐sample predictive analysis, performed as a horse race between equity and Treasury risk‐neutral volatilities, shows that, contrary to earlier results, the square of VIX and MOVE tend to complement each other.

Suggested Citation

  • Ana González‐Urteaga & Belén Nieto & Gonzalo Rubio, 2019. "A forecasting analysis of risk‐neutral equity and Treasury volatilities," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 681-698, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:38:y:2019:i:7:p:681-698
    DOI: 10.1002/for.2591
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    Cited by:

    1. Qu, Li, 2021. "A new approach to estimating earnings forecasting models: Robust regression MM-estimation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 1011-1030.

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