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Estimating the U.S. output gap with state‐level data

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  • Manuel González‐Astudillo

Abstract

This paper develops a method to estimate the U.S. output gap by exploiting the cross‐sectional variation of state‐level output and unemployment rate data. The model assumes that there are common output and unemployment rate trend and cycle components, and that each state's output and unemployment rate are subject to idiosyncratic trend and cycle perturbations. I estimate the model with Bayesian methods using quarterly data from 2005:Q1 to 2018:Q2 for the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Results show that the U.S. output gap reached about negative 4.6% around the years of the Great Recession and was about 0.9% in 2018:Q2.

Suggested Citation

  • Manuel González‐Astudillo, 2019. "Estimating the U.S. output gap with state‐level data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(5), pages 795-810, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:34:y:2019:i:5:p:795-810
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.2705
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